NFL Draft Odds: Track the First Overall NFL Pick Odds for 2024
- Get the latest NFL Draft odds, including which player will be taken first overall in 2024
- USC QB Caleb Williams is currently the heavy favorite to be selected first-overall
- Track the odds for NFL Draft props as we approach the 2024 NFL Draft in April
At SBD, we’re tracking all the NFL Draft odds and props available across all sportsbooks. Among others, we will have odds to be taken with the first overall pick in the 2024 NFL Draft, draft position over/unders, first player taken at each position, and many more as the year goes on.
The 2024 NFL Draft is currently set for Thursday, April 25 in Detroit, Michigan.
The odds in the graphs below are an average from multiple sportsbooks and will be updated with every major change. Since there is a ton of information and NFL Draft betting odds on this page, you can use the anchors below to drop down to a specific section.
Odds to Be 1st Pick | Odds to Be a Top 5 Pick | Odds to Be 2nd | 3rd Pick | 4th Pick | 5th Pick | Player to Be Drafted By a Team Odds | First QB | First Non-QB | First RB | First WR | First OL | First Defensive Player | First CB
NFL Draft Odds on First Overall Pick
USC’s Caleb Williams, who won the 2022 Heisman Trophy, is heavily favored to go first-overall in the 2024 NFL Draft. Williams is being referred to as a generational talent, but one who has also posted big numbers in college.
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Drake Maye always had the second-best odds to go first-overall up until early March when Jayden Daniels surpassed him. However, Caleb Williams is such a heavy favorite that it’s not really worth discussing the smaller moves that have happened behind him in the odds.
Odds to Be First-Overall NFL Pick
Player
|
Best Odds
|
|
|
|
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Williams, Caleb
|
-5000
|
-
|
-
|
|
|
Daniels, Jayden
|
+2500
|
-
|
-
|
|
|
Maye, Drake
|
+2500
|
-
|
-
|
|
|
Harrison Jr, Marvin
|
+5000
|
-
|
-
|
|
|
McCarthy, J.J.
|
+10000
|
-
|
-
|
|
|
Nix, BO
|
+15000
|
-
|
-
|
|
|
Penix Jr, Michael
|
+15000
|
-
|
-
|
Similar to last year, it is quarterbacks who are the top three contenders to be taken first-overall in the 2024 NFL Draft. Caleb Williams of USC is currently the favorite with very short -1200 odds. A $20 bet on Williams would only stand to profit $1.67 and return $21.67. Jayden Daniels and Drake Maye have the second and third-best odds, respectively.
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The biggest surprise on the board right now is Marvin Harrison Jr getting the fourth-best odds to go first-overall at +1500. (He did have the third-best odds for a long time too.) The surprise isn’t a slight on Harrison Jr’s talent – he’s a fantastic prospect – but rather a result of only three wide receivers being selected first-overall in the history of the NFL Draft. It has not happened since 1996 when Keyshawn Johnson was taken first-overall by the New York Jets.
*NFL Draft odds are updated every 20-30 minutes from DraftKings, FanDuel, and other top sports betting apps. If you’re not already betting with DraftKings, don’t miss the best DraftKings promo code for new users.
Here are some notes on the odds movement we’ve seen:
- [March 12] Jayden Daniels had been closing the gap between himself and Drake Maye in terms of the second QB to come off the board in the NFL Draft, and while it is bigger news when viewing the odds to be the second-overall pick, it is worth noting Daniels has overtaken Maye for the second-best odds to go first-overall as well. Seeing the Commanders sign Marcus Mariota, a QB who can also run an offense designed for Daniels, was what tipped the scales in the LSU product’s favor.
- [February 12, 2024] With both the college and NFL seasons now finished, Caleb Williams is breaking away from the pack even further in the odds to be the first pick. Williams’ odds have gotten as short as -1200.
- [November 14, 2023] While Caleb Williams is still the heavy favorite to go first overall in the draft, Drake Maye has been steadily closing the gap. Maye’s odds were at +500 in the summer and have now improved to +275.
- [April 28] Caleb Williams has opened as an extremely heavy favorite to be the first-overall pick in the 2024 NFL Draft. Williams has opened with -550 odds with Drake Maye given the second-best odds at +600.
Previous NFL First Overall Picks
| Year | 1st Overall Pick |
|---|---|
| 2023 | Bryce Young (QB) |
| 2022 | Travon Walker (DE) |
| 2021 | Trevor Lawrence (QB) |
| 2020 | Joe Burrow (QB) |
| 2019 | Kyler Murray (QB) |
Here are a few trends to note with the first overall pick:
- Notre Dame, USC, Georgia, and Oklahoma are tied for the most first overall picks coming from their respective schools with five each
- Here’s the positional breakdown of the 90 total first overall picks: 35 have been quarterbacks, 23 running backs, 16 defensive linemen, six offensive linemen, three wide receivers, two tight ends, four linebackers, and one defensive back
- The first overall pick has been a quarterback in five of the last six drafts, and seven of the last nine
- No running back has been selected first overall since Ki-Jana Carter in 1995
- Three of the last six first overall picks won the Heisman Trophy in their final college season – Bryce Young, Trevor Lawrence, and Travon Walker, the three most recent first overall picks, did not
Odds to Be a Top 5 Pick
|
Player
|
Best Odds
|
|
|
|
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Daniels, Jayden
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
|
|
Maye, Drake
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
|
|
Harrison Jr, Marvin
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
|
|
McCarthy, J.J.
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
|
|
Nabers, Malik
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
|
|
Alt, Joe
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
|
|
Odunze, Rome
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
As we get closer to the draft, we will see odds open up for who will be selected with a specific pick. We will likely see odds on each pick in the top ten ahead of the draft. We will continue adding more below as they open.
Odds to Be 2nd-Overall Pick
|
Player
|
Best Odds
|
|
|
|
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Daniels, Jayden
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
|
|
Maye, Drake
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
|
|
McCarthy, J.J.
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
|
|
Williams, Caleb
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
|
|
Harrison Jr, Marvin
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
|
|
Nix, BO
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
|
|
Penix Jr, Michael
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
When it comes to the second-overall pick in the 2024 NFL Draft, which is currently held by the Washington Commanders, Drake Maye was as heavy as a -140 favorite to be selected with this pick. However, with the Commanders signing Marcus Mariota, a quarterback with similar skills/traits to Daniels and quite opposite of Maye, sportsbooks believe Washington has tipped their hand for what they’ll do with the second pick. Daniels is now the odds-on favorite to go second-overall with -150 odds.
Odds to Be 3rd-Overall Pick
|
Player
|
Best Odds
|
|
|
|
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Maye, Drake
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
|
|
Daniels, Jayden
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
|
|
McCarthy, J.J.
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
|
|
Harrison Jr, Marvin
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
|
|
Alt, Joe
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
|
|
Williams, Caleb
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
|
|
Nabers, Malik
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
With the odds to go second-overall now leaning towards Daniels, it is Maye who has become the favorite to go third-overall to the New England Patriots. Maye is given +105 odds to be taken with the third pick. Though, many believe it may not be New England using this pick.
Odds to Be 4th-Overall Pick
|
Player
|
Best Odds
|
|
|
|
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Harrison Jr, Marvin
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
|
|
McCarthy, J.J.
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
|
|
Maye, Drake
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
|
|
Nabers, Malik
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
|
|
Daniels, Jayden
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
|
|
Odunze, Rome
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
|
|
Alt, Joe
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
The Arizona Cardinals currently hold the fourth-overall pick in the 2024 NFL Draft and the odds favor them taking Marvin Harrison Jr. The Ohio State wide receiver is given -250 odds to be the fourth pick. Michigan quarterback JJ McCarthy has the second-best odds at +650.
Odds to Be 5th-Overall Pick
|
Player
|
Best Odds
|
|
|
|
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Nabers, Malik
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
|
|
Harrison Jr, Marvin
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
|
|
McCarthy, J.J.
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
|
|
Alt, Joe
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
|
|
Odunze, Rome
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
|
|
Fuaga, Taliese
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
|
|
Maye, Drake
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
The Los Angeles Chargers currently hold the fifth-overall pick in the 2024 NFL Draft, and after releasing Mike Williams and trading Keenan Allen, it makes a lot of sense for Malik Nabers to be the favorite to be selected with this pick. Nabers is given +250 odds to be the fifth pick. JJ McCarthy once again has the second-best odds to be taken with this pick, as the Chargers very well could opt to trade back and try to address more holes on their roster.
Odds to Be 6th-Overall Pick
|
Player
|
Best Odds
|
|
|
|
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Nabers, Malik
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
|
|
McCarthy, J.J.
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
|
|
Alt, Joe
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
|
|
Odunze, Rome
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
|
|
Harrison Jr, Marvin
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
|
|
Maye, Drake
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
|
|
Daniels, Jayden
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
With the New York Giants holding the sixth-overall pick in the NFL Draft, Malik Nabers is the favorite to be selected. If the G-Men are going to stick with Daniel Jones / not move up for a QB, they’d be smart to bring in a true #1 wide receiver. Nabers is exactly that.
Odds to Be 7th-Overall Pick
|
Player
|
Best Odds
|
|
|
|
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Alt, Joe
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
|
|
Odunze, Rome
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
|
|
Fuaga, Taliese
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
|
|
Fashanu, Olumuyiwa
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
|
|
Nabers, Malik
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
|
|
McCarthy, J.J.
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
|
|
Turner, Dallas
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
Joe Alt is the favorite to be selected with the seventh-overall pick, which is held by the Tennessee Titans. Brian Callahan brings a much different offensive mindset than Tennessee has had under Mike Vrabel, and they spent big in free agency to provide Will Levis with weapons, namely Calvin Ridley. Sportsbooks strongly believe Tennessee will now make an investment to keep Levis upright.
Odds to Be 8th-Overall Pick
|
Player
|
Best Odds
|
|
|
|
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Turner, Dallas
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
|
|
McCarthy, J.J.
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
|
|
Verse, Jared
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
|
|
Mitchell, Quinyon
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
|
|
Latu, Laiatu
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
|
|
Odunze, Rome
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
|
|
Arnold, Terrion
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
The Atlanta Falcons hold the eighth-overall pick and Dallas Turner is heavily favored to be selected in this spot. The Falcons already had a very exciting arsenal of weapons and added Kirk Cousins in free agency. After recording the 12th-fewest sacks last season, it makes sense for Atlanta to add a great pass-rusher.
Odds on Team to Draft Blake Corum
|
Player
|
Best Odds
|
|
|
|
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Los Angeles Chargers
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
|
|
Dallas Cowboys
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
|
|
New York Giants
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
|
|
Los Angeles Rams
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
|
|
Carolina Panthers
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
|
|
Las Vegas Raiders
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
|
|
Cincinnati Bengals
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
Blake Corum’s coach at Michigan, Jim Harbaugh, is now the head coach for the Los Angeles Chargers. Harbaugh’s new team is the favorite to select his old running back.
Each player has odds to be drafted by all 32 teams that can be found at the sportsbooks, but we cut it down to the top contenders for the sake of space.
Odds on Team to Draft Bo Nix
|
Player
|
Best Odds
|
|
|
|
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Denver Broncos
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
|
|
Minnesota Vikings
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
|
|
Las Vegas Raiders
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
|
|
New York Giants
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
|
|
New Orleans Saints
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
|
|
New England Patriots
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
|
|
Seattle Seahawks
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
The Denver Broncos are currently the favorites to draft Bo Nix, with the Minnesota Vikings a close second.
Odds on Team to Draft Brock Bowers
|
Player
|
Best Odds
|
|
|
|
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
New York Jets
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
|
|
Indianapolis Colts
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
|
|
Denver Broncos
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
|
|
Chicago Bears
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
|
|
Cincinnati Bengals
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
|
|
Los Angeles Chargers
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
|
|
Tennessee Titans
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
The Indianapolis Colts are the favorites to draft TE Brock Bowers. They are well ahead of the pack with +380 odds. The team with the next-best odds is the Bengals at +600.
Odds on Team to Draft JJ McCarthy
|
Player
|
Best Odds
|
|
|
|
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Minnesota Vikings
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
|
|
New England Patriots
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
|
|
Washington Commanders
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
|
|
New York Giants
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
|
|
Denver Broncos
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
|
|
Seattle Seahawks
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
|
|
Las Vegas Raiders
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
The Minnesota Vikings are heavily favored to draft JJ McCarthy with +105 odds. The Giants are given the second-best odds at +300.
Odds on Team to Draft Marvin Harrison Jr
|
Player
|
Best Odds
|
|
|
|
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Arizona Cardinals
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
|
|
Los Angeles Chargers
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
|
|
New England Patriots
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
|
|
New York Jets
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
|
|
Washington Commanders
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
|
|
New York Giants
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
|
|
Chicago Bears
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
The Arizona Cardinals are heavy favorites to draft Marvin Harrison Jr.
Odds on Team to Draft Michael Penix Jr
|
Player
|
Best Odds
|
|
|
|
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Minnesota Vikings
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
|
|
Las Vegas Raiders
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
|
|
Denver Broncos
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
|
|
New York Giants
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
|
|
Seattle Seahawks
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
|
|
New Orleans Saints
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
|
|
New England Patriots
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
The Vikings are also listed as the favorites to draft Michael Penix Jr. The message is clear from sportsbooks: Minnesota is not leaving the draft without a new quarterback.
Odds on Team to Draft Xavier Worthy
|
Player
|
Best Odds
|
|
|
|
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Buffalo Bills
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
|
|
Carolina Panthers
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
|
|
Dallas Cowboys
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
|
|
Kansas City Chiefs
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
|
|
Los Angeles Chargers
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
|
|
Houston Texans
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
|
|
Cincinnati Bengals
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
The Buffalo Bills are given the best odds to draft Xavier Worthy, the new record-holder for the fastest 40-yard dash. The Bills are given +470 odds, while the Panthers are next with +800 odds.
Odds to Be First Quarterback Selected
Caleb Williams is heavily favored to be the first quarterback selected in the 2024 NFL Draft with -1200 odds. Rounding out the top five contenders to be the first QB taken are: Jayden Daniels (+700), Drake Maye (+850), JJ McCarthy (+3000), and Michael Penix Jr (+9000).
Daniels has seen a massive rise up the board. When these odds opened, the LSU product was given the tenth-best odds. He has now improved to the second-best, thanks to a strong final season in college as well as a couple college QBs deciding to stay in school for another year.
Odds to Be First Non-QB Selected
|
Player
|
Best Odds
|
|
|
|
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Harrison Jr, Marvin
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
|
|
Nabers, Malik
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
|
|
Alt, Joe
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
|
|
Fashanu, Olumuyiwa
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
|
|
Fuaga, Taliese
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
|
|
Bowers, Brock
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
|
|
Odunze, Rome
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
Marvin Harrison Jr is favored to be the first non-quarterback selected in the 2024 NFL Draft with -650 odds. MHJ’s odds have improved dramatically since the college season ended. The Ohio State product was the favorite with -135 odds in late 2023.
Olumuyiwa Fashanu, an offensive tackle for Penn State, was given the second-best odds when this betting market opened. Jared Verse, a defensive end for Florida State, overtook him for the second-best odds later on in the college season, but Verse has slipped now too. Once given +300 odds, Verse is now getting +1100 odds and is fourth on the board. Joe Alt, a tackle from Notre Dame, quickly held the second-best odds, but he too has been overtaken, as Malik Nabers has risen up the board.
Odds to Be First Running Back Selected
Though Blake Corum may have been the most popular running back in the NCAA last season, it is Florida State’s Trey Benson who is the favorite to be the first RB taken in the draft.
Odds to Be First Wide Receiver Selected
Marvin Harrison is the heavy favorite to be the first wide receiver selected. Malik Nabers has the second-best odds.
Odds to Be First Offensive Lineman Selected
Joe Alt is the favorite to be the first offensive lineman selected in the draft. Alt is given -220 odds. Taliese Fuaga is given the second-best odds.
Odds to Be First Defensive Player Selected
Dallas Turner is the favorite to be the first defensive player selected in the draft. Quinyon Mitchell has the second-best odds.
Odds to Be First Corner Selected
The odds say Quinyon Mitchell will be the first cornerback selected in the 2024 NFL Draft.
2024 NFL Draft Order – First Round
| Pick | Team |
|---|---|
| 1 | Chicago Bears (from Panthers) |
| 2 | Washington Commanders |
| 3 | New England Patriots |
| 4 | Arizona Cardinals |
| 5 | Los Angeles Chargers |
| 6 | New York Giants |
| 7 | Tennessee Titans |
| 8 | Atlanta Falcons |
| 9 | Chicago Bears |
| 10 | New York Jets |
| 11 | Minnesota Vikings |
| 12 | Denver Broncos |
| 13 | Las Vegas Raiders |
| 14 | New Orleans Saints |
| 15 | Indianapolis Colts |
| 16 | Seattle Seahawks |
| 17 | Jacksonville Jaguars |
| 18 | Cincinnati Bengals |
| 19 | Los Angeles Rams |
| 20 | Pittsburgh Steelers |
| 21 | Miami Dolphins |
| 22 | Philadelphia Eagles |
| 23 | Minnesota Vikings (from Browns & Texans) |
| 24 | Dallas Cowboys |
| 25 | Green Bay Packers |
| 26 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers |
| 27 | Arizona Cardinals (from Texans) |
| 28 | Buffalo Bills |
| 29 | Detroit Lions |
| 30 | Baltimore Ravens |
| 31 | San Francisco 49ers |
| 32 | Kansas City Chiefs |
The 2023-24 NFL season has concluded and we have the order set for the entire first round of the 2024 NFL Draft. You can see who holds picks 1-32 in the table above. The Chicago Bears currently hold the first-overall pick, while the Kansas City Chiefs are set to make the final pick (32nd) of the first round.
Odds to Have 1st Overall Pick in 2024 NFL Draft
|
Team
|
Best Odds
|
|
|
|
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
CAR
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
|
|
NE
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
|
|
ARI
|
-
|
-
|
-
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To start the 2023 NFL season, the Arizona Cardinals had the lowest NFL win total and the best odds to finish the season with the fewest regular season wins. This would suggest they were the favorite to get the first pick in the 2024 NFL Draft. However, Carolina’s struggles early in the season have moved them to the favorites to get the first-overall pick / finish with the worst regular season record.
Odds to have the worst record in the 2023-24 NFL season are updated every 20-30 minutes from FanDuel and other top sportsbooks.
Teams to Select First in Past Drafts
| Year | Team with 1st Pick |
|---|---|
| 2023 | Carolina Panthers* |
| 2022 | Jacksonville Jaguars |
| 2021 | Jacksonville Jaguars |
| 2020 | Cincinnati Bengals |
| 2019 | Arizona Cardinals |
Here are a few trends when it comes to the teams selecting first overall:
- The Colts (both as Baltimore and Indianapolis) and Rams (as Cleveland, St Louis, and Los Angeles) are tied for the most times picking first overall with seven each
- Three teams have never selected first overall: the Denver Broncos, Seattle Seahawks, and Baltimore Ravens
- The first overall pick has been traded six times, most recently in 2023 when the Panthers traded up for Bryce Young
- A team from the AFC North has had the first overall pick in three of the last seven seasons
- The Cleveland Browns (2017-18), Cincinnati Bengals (1994-95), Philadelphia Eagles (1936-37), and Jacksonville Jaguars (2021-22) are the only four teams to ever select first overall in back-to-back drafts
NFL Draft Order – How the Process Works
Unlike the NBA and NHL, there is no draft lottery in the NFL. The first 18 picks go to the 18 teams that didn’t qualify for the playoffs. The team with the worst record gets the #1-overall pick; the team with the second-worst record gets the #2-overall pick, and so on.
If teams have the same win/loss record, the tie is broken by strength of schedule. The team that played the weaker strength of schedule is awarded the better draft pick. In 2015, for example, the Titans and Browns tied for worst record in the NFL at 3-13. The Titans got the #1 pick (which they traded to the Rams) because they played a weaker schedule than the Browns.
The final 14 picks go to the 14 teams that did qualify for the postseason. Picks #19 through #25 go to the six teams that were eliminated in the Wild Card round. The #19th pick goes to the team with the worst regular-season record among those six teams, and so on.
Repeat this process for teams eliminated in the Divisional Round and Conference Championships. The #32 pick goes to the team that won the Super Bowl.
After working in TV, Matt turned his focus towards numbers, specifically odds. He has been with us since 2016 and serves as SBD's Editor-in-Chief, credited with creating our futures trackers, SBD's score predictor, SBD Sharp, and his own model for calculating NFL SOS, among other products.
