Tonight, the St Louis Cardinals (1-2, 1-2 away, 2-1 O/U) close out a four-game series with the Los Angeles Dodgers (3-2, 2-1 home, 3-2 O/U) in the first Sunday Night Baseball game of the 2024 season.

After starting the season with back-to-back losses, and getting outscored 13-4, the Cardinals got in the win column yesterday with a 6-5 extra-innings victory over LA. Oddsmakers heavily favor the Dodgers taking the final game of the series on Sunday night, despite trotting out an untested starter.

Cardinals vs Dodgers Odds

The Dodgers are -166 chalk in Sunday’s MLB odds with the Cardinals at +140 to earn a split in the four-game series. The over/under is listed at 8.5.

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After a busy offseason that included acquiring Shohei Ohtani, the Dodgers are listed as +542 favorites in the World Series odds. At +3383, the Cardinals are right in the middle of the 30-team MLB pack.

LAD vs STL Starting Pitchers for Sunday Night Baseball

The pitching matchup for the fourth and final game of the series sees both teams reaching deep into their rotations. The Cardinals send veteran Steven Matz to the bump opposite young Gavin Stone for the Dodgers.

Matz is coming off of one of the better seasons in his nine-year career, posting a 3.86 ERA with a 1.33 WHIP in 105 innings. His career ERA is still well over four (4.25).

Stone pitched 31 innings last year, his first in the bigs. He had an inflated 9.00 ERA and 1.90 WHIP in that small sample size.

Steven Matz vs Gavin Stone

*All statistics in table from 2023 regular season. 

Matz doesn’t have terribly encouraging numbers against the Dodger lineup. In 127 total at-bats, LA’s hitters are slashing .268/.316/.425 against the 32-year-old lefty. He has limited them to just three homers, though, with Freddie Freeman, Kiki Hernandez, and Teoscar Hernandez each taking him yard once.

Matz faced the Dodgers once in 2023, taking the loss in a 5-0 LAD victory. Matz went 4.2 innings, allowing six hits and two walks but limiting the damage to just one (unearned) run.

Stone, a 25-year-old righty, has never faced any of the Cardinal batters.

Nolan Arenado is hitless in 11 at-bats through three games this season. Paul Goldschmidt is 3-for-10 and drove in the game-winning run in the 10th inning last night. Giovani Gallegos picked up the save, striking out the first two batters he faced in the 10th before getting Ohtani to pop out to end the game.

STL Cardinals vs Dodgers LA Prediction

Stone didn’t look ready for the majors last season, and even his triple-A numbers were a little concerning: 100.2 innings, Stone posted a 4.52 ERA and 4.78 xFIP in 2023. With a little major-league time under his belt, it’s possible he starts 2024 much more effectively. But that’s not something I’m prepared to bet on.

While Matz isn’t a pitcher I back often, he’s done a solid job of keeping the Dodgers hitters in the park during his career. I expect him to give the Cardinals a significant advantage in the starting-pitching matchup, and I am going to bet St Louis on the first 5 innings moneyline as a result.

STL vs LAD picks:

• Cardinals first 5 innings moneyline (+124)
• Nolan Arenado over 0.5 hits (-215)

Sascha Paruk’s 2023-24 MLB betting record: 2-0 (+1.54 units)

All wagers one unit unless expressly stated otherwise.

The post St Louis Cardinals vs LA Dodgers Odds, Picks & Starting Pitchers for Sunday Night Baseball appeared first on Sports Betting Dime.

Coming off their first AL East crown since 2014, the Baltimore Orioles (101-61, 49-32 home) will aim to do something this season they haven’t done since 1974: go back to back as division champs.

Baltimore opens the season with a three-game set against the Los Angeles Angels (73-89, 35-46 away), who are adjusting to life without Shohei Ohtani.

With Brewers/Mets postponed, Angels vs Orioles will begin the Opening Day action at 3:05 pm ET at Camden Yards.

LA Angels vs Baltimore Orioles Odds

The Orioles are listed as -175 moneyline favorites in Thursday’s MLB odds with the Angels +145 road underdogs to win. The game total is at just 7.5 with both teams sending their aces to the bump on Opening Day.

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Baltimore (+202) begins the season as the second-favorite to win the AL East in the MLB division odds, slightly trailing the revamped New York Yankees (+144).

LAA vs BAL Starting Pitchers

The Orioles will send Corbin Burnes to the mound on Opening Day, whom they acquired in a blockbuster trade with the Milwaukee Brewers in the offseason. Burnes is three years removed from winning the 2021 NL Cy Young Award and has been named to three straight NL All-Star teams.

The Angels counter with 27-year-old lefty Patrick Sandoval, who is coming off a down year. Sandoval saw his ERA balloon from 2.91 in 2022 to 4.11 last season.

Patrick Sandoval vs Corbin Burnes

*All statistics in table from 2023 regular season. 

Burnes has very minimal history against the LAA lineup, but the history that exists is encouraging for Oriole fans. In 21 total at-bats, Angel batters are hitting just .190 with no home runs, two doubles, and eight strikeouts. Burnes made one start against the Angels last season, pitching a phenomenal eight innings, allowing just two hits, no walks, and no runs while striking out nine.

Sandoval made one (ugly) start against Baltimore last season, allowing four earned runs on seven hits and four walks over 5.0 innings in a 10-3 loss. Overall, the Oriole lineup is slashing .250/.381/.269 in 52 total at-bats. All except one of their 13 hits have been singles, but they also have 11 walks.

Angels vs Orioles Prediction

Baltimore is returning basically the same batting order that racked up 807 runs last year (4.98 runs per game) and has now added one of the most-dominant pitchers in baseball.

Even with Ohtani claiming his second AL MVP Award last year, the Angels still finished -90 in run differential while scoring just 739 runs on the year.

In light of the way Burnes dominated this Angels team last year, and how poor Sandoval pitched against the O’s, I will gladly lay some juice on a Baltimore victory.

LAA vs BAL pick: Orioles moneyline (-175)

The post LA Angels vs Baltimore Orioles Odds, Picks & Starting Pitchers for Opening Day (March 28) appeared first on Sports Betting Dime.

Two teams adjusting to depleted starting rotations meet in their first game of the 2024 MLB season on Friday afternoon (after a postponement on Thursday). Without Corbin Burnes (Orioles) or Brandon Woodruff (shoulder surgery) in the mix, the Milwaukee Brewers (92-70, 43-38 away) send Freddy Peralta to the mound on Opening Day opposite Jose Quintana for the New York Mets (75-87, 43-38 home), who at this time last year had both Justin Verlander and Max Scherzer on the roster.

Oddsmakers have listed the Brewers vs Mets odds as a veritable pick’em.

Brewers vs Mets Odds

The Mets are slight -115 moneyline favorites over the Brewers in the MLB odds for Opening Day, with the Brewers at -105 to win straight-up. The game total is sitting at just 7.5.

The Mets were one of the best under bets in the league last year at 67-88-7 O/U. Only Cleveland and San Francisco hit more unders. Milwaukee’s O/U record also leaned heavily to the under at 73-85-6.

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Milwaukee vs NYM Betting Splits

The MLB public betting splits show the public hammering the hometown Mets on the moneyline. So far, 91% of moneyline handle is on New York to win on just 61% of the tickets.

The public went 1,447-966-18 on its moneyline plays last year but take that SU record with a grain of salt as the public was loath to back moneyline underdogs.

Freddy Peralta vs Jose Quintana

*All statistics in table from 2023 regular season. 

Mets Add JD Martinez to Subpar Offense

After scoring just 717 runs last year (4.42 runs per game, 11th-fewest in MLB), the Mets signed free agent designated hitter JD Martinez last Saturday. In a one-year stint with the Dodgers last year, Martinez slashed .271/.321/.572 with 33 home runs, 27 doubles, and 103 RBI.

Martinez joins a batting order anchored by Pete Alonso (.821 OPS, 46 home runs, 118 RBI) and Francisco Lindor (.806 , 31 HR, 98 RBI).

Peralta has mostly dominated the Mets batters that he’s faced. In 52 total at-bats, New York hitters are slashing just .154/.254/.346 against the 27-year-old righty with two homers and two doubles.

Alonso is 1-for-4 with a double, a walk, and a strikeout. Lindos is also 1-for-4 with a home run, three walks, and three Ks. Jeff McNeil and Brandon Nimmo are a combined 0-for-9 with just one walk and three strikeouts.

Peralta made just one start against NYM last season, and it was coincidentally his first of the season. Peralta pitched a scoreless six innings in a 10-0 Milwaukee win, allowing just two hits and three walks with seven Ks on April 3.

Brewers Beef-up Lineup with Rhys Hoskins

The Brewers were also among the more anemic offenses in baseball last season with 728 runs scored, just nine more than the Mets. But thanks to a solid starting staff (3.94 ERA) and an elite bullpen (3.40 ERA), Milwaukee allowed just 647 runs last year, the fewest in the majors.

With Burnes gone to Baltimore and Woodruff injured, the Brewers figure to surrender more runs this season, but they are also likely to have a more-potent lineup with the addition of Rhys Hoskins from the Phillies.

Hoskins is coming off a 30-homer, 33-double season with Philadelphia in which he recorded a career-best 3.1 WAR despite his OPS dropping under .800 for the first time in his five-plus-year career.

Only three Brewers accounted for more than 50 RBI last season, but all three are return: shortstop Willy Adames (.717 OPS, 24 HR, 80 RBI), outfielder Christian Yelich (.818 OPS, 19 HR, 76 RBI), and catcher William Contreras (.828 OPS, 17 HR, 78 RBI).

The Milwaukee hitters have a much better history against Quintana than the Mets do against Peralta. In 66 total at-bats, the Brewers lineup has a .288 average with three homers, seven doubles, and just 15 Ks. Adames, Contreras, and Hoskins have all taken Quintana deep once.

Quintana didn’t face Milwaukee in an injury-shortened 2023. He faced the Brewers three times in 2022, though, while still with the Cardinals. He went 14.1 combined innings, allowing 14 hits, four walks, and six earned runs with an impressive 18 strikeouts. St Louis went 1-2 straight-up in those three games.

Brewers vs Mets Predictions

The Mets are coming off a relatively awful season and really didn’t do much to address the issues that plagued them in 2023. Management is simply hoping for better production from the existing lineup.

I don’t love Milwaukee’s chances of repeating as NL Central champs – or even getting back to the postseason – with two of its top-three starters gone, but Peralta gives the Brewers a decided edge in the starting pitcher matchup and they still figure to have a much better bullpen than the Mets, who finished 22nd in the majors in bullpen ERA last year.

 MIL vs NYM picks: Brewers moneyline (-105)

The post Milwaukee Brewers vs New York Mets Odds, Picks & Predictions for March 29 (UPDATED) appeared first on Sports Betting Dime.

MLB Opening Day is almost here, with 30 teams scheduled to kick off the season on Thursday, March 28th. MLB odds have been released for the massive 15-game slate that begins with Brewers vs Mets and concludes with Red Sox vs Mariners.

We’ve made our MLB Opening Day predictions, including identifying the games with the best betting value. Below, you can see a full table of game odds and our expert picks.

MLB Opening Day Odds 2024

In the MLB Opening Day odds for 2024, the heaviest favorite on the board is the Arizona Diamondbacks (-235) in their late-night matchup with the Colorado Rockies. Conversely, the tightest line is an afternoon clash between the San Francisco Giants (-108) and San Diego Padres (-112).

When it comes to game totals, the Washington Nationals vs Cincinnati Reds matchup is the only game that features a total of 9 or higher. Make sure to check out our MLB odds page for the latest markets as these prices can change

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Brewers vs Mets Prediction & Pick

The very first pitch of the 2024 season features an intriguing contrast of styles, as the small-market Brewers visit the big-spending Mets in Queens. 20-year-old phenom Jackson Chourio, the consensus top prospect in baseball, headlines Milwaukee’s youth movement. He’ll make his highly anticipated MLB debut as part of a Brewers lineup looking to prove the doubters wrong.

They’ll have their work cut out for them against Mets veteran José Quintana. The crafty lefty stabilized New York’s rotation after coming over at last year’s trade deadline. On the other side, Brewers ace Freddy Peralta looks to build off a breakout 2023 campaign and stake his claim as one of the NL’s elite arms.

Your SP1 is @FreddyPeraltaRD ❕❕❕ pic.twitter.com/IcxfkGdcLu

— Milwaukee Brewers (@Brewers) March 19, 2024

While the Mets opened as the favorites on paper, don’t be surprised if the plucky Brewers play spoiler behind a strong Peralta outing and some Opening Day magic from their dynamic rookie Chourio. In 11 career innings vs NYM, Peralta has only conceded four runs.

Furthermore, Francisco Lindor, Ketel Marte, and Pete Alonso are only a combined 1 for 18 against Peralta. In a season where many expect Milwaukee to take a step back, an upset win over the mighty Mets would send an early message that they’re still a force to be reckoned with in the NL Central.

MLB Opening Day Pick:

• Milwaukee Brewers ML (-110)

Editors Note: This game has been postponed until Friday due to inclement weather.

Yankees vs Astros Best Bet

A rematch of the epic 2022 ALCS, the Yankees and Astros waste no time renewing their budding rivalry. Offseason acquisition Juan Soto makes his highly anticipated Yankees debut, joining a fearsome lineup with Aaron Judge, Giancarlo Stanton and Anthony Rizzo.

They’ll face a tall task against Astros ace Framber Valdez, who led the AL with a 2.82 ERA in 2023. The Astros, who have won two World Series titles in four years, still boast a potent offense led by Yordan Alvarez, Kyle Tucker, and Jose Altuve. Yankees southpaw Nestor Cortes will try to keep them in check.

Nestor drops down a bit to get Olson to end the 1st! pic.twitter.com/vrPGYyndnh

— Talkin' Yanks (@TalkinYanks) March 21, 2024

But in a matchup between two evenly matched powerhouses, the Astros’ championship pedigree gives them a slight edge. The Astros took the season series 5-2 last year, with the Yankees 29th-ranked batting average proving costly.

Cortes struggled in spring training, going 0-2 with a 7.71 ERA. Look for Valdez to outduel Cortes in a low-scoring pitcher’s duel as the Astros begin their World Series quest with a hard-fought victory.

MLB Opening Day Picks:

• Astros ML (-155)
• Under 8.5 Runs (-105)

Make sure you check out the best sports betting apps for MLB before placing your bets! Several sign-up offers are available for new customers ahead of Opening Day.

The post MLB Opening Day Picks & Odds for All 15 Games appeared first on Sports Betting Dime.

Minutes before the Texas Rangers captured their first World Series with a 4-1 rout of the Arizona Diamondbacks in the best-of-seven final, sportsbooks released the 2024 World Series odds for all 30 teams in Major League Baseball.

The Rangers are near the top of the 2024 World Series futures, but not at the absolute apex. The mantle of 2024 World Series betting favorite goes to the team that racked up the most regular-season wins last year: the Atlanta Braves.

World Series Odds 2024

The current NL champions from Arizona are much further down the list than the team that finally ended their storybook playoff run. The Diamondbacks are only tied for the 14th-best odds at +2500, trailing four teams that didn’t make the postseason last year (New York Yankees, San Diego Padres, Boston Red Sox, and New York Mets).

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The longest odds on the board belong to the Colorado Rockies and Oakland Athletics at +15000. Oakland finished dead-last in the majors last year with just 50 wins and 112 losses. The Rockies were the worst team in the National League by a wide margin; their 59 wins were 12 fewer than any other team on the Senior Circuit.

Atlanta Braves Open as 2024 World Series Betting Favorites

The home-run happy Atlanta Braves, who led the league with 307 long balls, 104 wins, and +231 run differential, opened as +700 favorites in the 2024 World Series odds. The vast majority of Atlanta’s major contributors are still under contract for 2024; the biggest upcoming free agents are soon-to-be 40-year-old pitcher Charlie Morton and left fielder Eddie Rosario.

Presumptive NL MVP Ronald Acuna Jr and 54-homer, 139-RBI first baseman Matt Olson will continue to lead the most-dangerous batting order in baseball.  Young ace Spencer Strider figures to open as the favorite in the NL Cy Young odds when the player-award betting markets open.

World Series-Champion Rangers Third Favorite to Repeat

After dominating the 2023 playoffs, the Rangers have opened as the +900 co-third-favorite to win the 2024 Fall Classic. A late-season slump saw Texas lose out on its first division title since 2016, but that bitter taste was washed away expeditiously in the postseason. Texas went a perfect 11-0 on the road in the playoffs and 16-4 overall en route the first championship in the 62-year history of the team that used to be known as the Washington Senators.

The biggest impending free agents on the Texas roster are starting pitcher Jordan Montgomery, who was second on the team with 31.0 innings in the playoffs and a team-leading 2.90 ERA (among starters). Also hitting the market are catcher Mitch Garver (.270/.370/.500 with 19 home runs in 87 regular-season games) and reliever Aroldis Chapman (3.09 ERA, 2.52 FIP in 58.1 regular-season innings).

If the likes of Corey Seager, Adolis Garcia, and budding superstar Josh Jung can stay healthy, the Rangers figure to have one of the most-formidable lineups in baseball once again.

The post Opening 2024 World Series Odds – Atlanta Braves Favored Over LA Dodgers, Texas Rangers appeared first on Sports Betting Dime.

Tonight in Phoenix, AZ, the Texas Rangers (101-76, 50-41 away) can put a fitting coda on a storybook season. Leading the Arizona Diamondbacks (94-84, 46-41 home) three games to one in the 2023 World Series, a victory on Wednesday evening would give Texas its first championship in franchise history. Texas ran its postseason road record to a perfect 10-0 with a convincing 11-7 victory yesterday, a game they coincidentally led 10-0 at one point.

Nathan Eovaldi and Zac Gallen meet on the mound in a rematch of the pitching matchup from the opening game of the series (a 6-5 Ranger win in extra innings). First pitch is scheduled for 8:03 pm ET.

Rangers vs Diamondbacks Odds: Game 5

As with each of the past two games, the odds for Game 5 are a pick’em with both Texas and Arizona listed at -110 on the moneyline. As with the previous two games in Arizona, the visiting Rangers are getting most of the action in the MLB public betting splits.

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Starting Pitchers: Texas vs Arizona Game 5

Neither pitcher was terribly effective in Game 1, but Gallen was certainly the better of the two. The Arizona ace gave up three runs on four hits of 5.0 innings with five strikeouts. Eovaldi, meanwhile, had by far his worst game of the postseason, allowing five runs on six hits over 4.2 innings, though he did get eight of his 14 outs by way of strikeout.

Nathan Eovaldi vs Zac Gallen

*All statistics in table from 2023 regular season. 

After that drubbing last Friday, Eovaldi is now allowing a .302/.353./.508 slashline to the Arizona hitters including three home runs, two doubles, and a triple in 63 total at-bats.

The Ranger batters have decent numbers off Gallen, though haven’t generated the same power, with a .277/.318/.416 slashline in 101 total at-bats, but just two home runs to show for it (including one from Robbie Grossman who isn’t in Wednesday’s MLB lineups).

TEX vs ARI Game 5: Player Props

*Perdomo’s and Jankowski’s home run odds from Caesars Sportsbook. All other odds in the MLB props table from DraftKings.

With Adolis Garcia set to miss his second straight game due to an oblique strain, Ranger teammate Corey Seager once again has the shortest odds to hit a home run at +330. Seager is 7-for-22 lifetime against Gallen (.318) but only has one extra-base hit (a double).

Christian Walker has the shortest home-run odds among Arizona batters, though Walker is in a dreadful slump during the postseason. He’s batting just .211 with one home run in 16 games after mashing 33 during the regular season. He showed signs of life in Tuesday’s 11-7 loss, with three hits including a double.

The starting pitchers have eerily similar props across the board. Both are have a strikeout over/under of 4.5 and an outs-recorded number of 15.5. Eovaldi’s odds to go over are ever-so-slightly shorter in both categories.

Texas Rangers vs Arizona Diamondbacks Game 5 Predictions

Eovaldi has been generating a lot of swings-and-misses in the postseason, and that’s likely to continue in Game 5. The Texas starter has only been held under 4.5 strikeouts in one playoff start and has a total of 36 Ks in just 30.2 innings. He’s reached at least seven strikeouts in four of five postseason games. Lifetime against the Arizona batters, he has 20 strikeouts in 68 plate appearances (a 29.4% strikeout rate).

But I still expect Game 5 to have a similar flow as Game 1, meaning Gallen gets the better of the pitching matchup in the early going in a must-win game. While he struggled with the longball early in the playoffs – giving up six in his first four starts – he’s always been able to keep the Ranger batters in the park (two homers in 109 plate appearances) and did so again in the series opener.

Game 5 Rangers vs Diamondbacks Picks:

• Arizona first 5 innings moneyline (-120)
• Eovaldi over 4.5 strikeouts (-125)

The post Rangers vs Diamondbacks Game 5 Player-Prop Picks, Predictions & Odds appeared first on Sports Betting Dime.

It could prove to be a Pyrrhic victory with both Max Scherzer and Adolis Garcia leaving the game due to injury, but the Texas Rangers (100-76, 49-41 away) earned a 3-1 victory over the Arizona Diamondbacks (94-83, 46-40 home) last night and now hold a 2-1 edge in the 2023 World Series heading into Game 4 on Tuesday (8:03 pm ET).

Neither team will be terribly confident in its pitching situation heading into Game 4, and oddsmakers once again see it as a coinflip.

Texas Rangers vs Arizona Diamondbacks Game 4 Odds

Like Monday, Texas and Arizona are both -110 on the moneyline in another pick’em game on Tuesday. Despite yesterday’s game staying well under the total of 9.0, the run total for Game 4 has ticked up by half a run to 9.5.

The MLB public betting splits so far show Texas getting the majority of moneyline handle (58%) while the under is getting most of the money bet on the total (58% as well).

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The injuries to Garcia and Scherzer notwithstanding, the Rangers are now -298 favorites to win their first championship in the updated World Series odds. Arizona faded from +116 to +245 after Monday’s loss.

DBacks vs Rangers Game 4 Starting Pitchers

Mostly relegated to the bullpen for the better part of the past two months, Andrew Heaney will get his second start of the postseason on Tuesday. The 32-year-old has a 6.00 playoff ERA over just six innings pitched. He lasted just 3.2 innings in his first postseason start against Baltimore back on October 7, giving up one run on two hits and a walk while striking out one.

Reliever Mantiply has pitched 6.1 innings over eight appearances in the 2023 playoffs. He carries a 4.25 ERA and 1.29 WHIP. Five of his eight appearances lasted less than a full inning while only one saw Mantiply record more than three outs (1.1 IP against the Dodgers in Game 3).

Andrew Heaney vs Joe Mantiply

*All statistics in table from 2023 regular season. 

There is very limited history between Mantiply and the Ranger hitters, but the top of the order – Marcus Semien, Corey Seager, and likely Evan Carter slotting into the number-three hole if Garcia can’t go – is 3-for-7 off the 6’4 lefty.

There is a little more history between Heaney and the Arizona lineup, but still little to go on. In 38 total at-bats, the DBack hitters have a just a .211 average but a .526 slugging percentage thanks to four home runs. Ketel Marte and Christian Walker have both taken Heaney deep twice.

Texas vs Arizona Player Props (Game 4)

*Perdomo’s home run odds from Caesars Sportsbook. All others odds in the MLB props table from DraftKings.

With Mantiply expected to go just an inning – four or five outs at the most – Heaney is the only starter on the board in the Game 4 player props. The erstwhile starter has a strikeout prop of just 2.5 and an outs-recorded number of 9.5. He would need one out in the fourth inning to go over.

With Garcia off the board, the shortest home run odds belong to teammate Corey Seager (+320) who has already gone yard twice in the first three games of the series, and three times in his past four, also homering in Game 7 of the ALCS against Houston.

Texas Rangers vs Arizona Diamondbacks Game 4 Predictions

While most of his outings in this span have been in relief, Heaney hasn’t recorded more than two strikeouts in nine straight appearances. After the Texas bullpen accounted for six innings on Monday, Bruce Bochy will undoubtedly be hoping for some length out of Heaney in Game 4 on Tuesday. But he was pitching relatively well in Game 1 of the NLDS with Baltimore and was still yanked after just 56 pitches and 11 outs.

While Texas is now a perfect 9-0 on the road in the 2023 playoffs, they were the only AL team to make the postseason with a losing record away from home in the regular season, and with the MVP of the ALCS (Garcia) at less than 100% if he plays at all, expect the Rangers to come back to the realm of mortals on Tuesday night.

Rangers vs DBacks Picks for Game 4:

• Diamondbacks moneyline (-110)
• Heaney under 2.5 strikeouts (+115)
• Ketel Marte over 0.5 RBI (+155)

The post Rangers vs Diamondbacks Odds, Player Props, Expert Picks & Predictions for Game 4 appeared first on Sports Betting Dime.

With the best-of-seven series tied at one apiece, the 2023 World Series between the Texas Rangers (99-76, 48-41 away) and Arizona Diamondbacks (94-82, 46-39 home) moves to Phoenix, AZ, on Monday for Game 3 (8:03 pm ET).

The pitching matchup is a stark juxtaposition in terms of experience with 16-year veteran and future Hall-of-Famer Max Scherzer starting for Texas against rookie Brandon Pfaadt for Arizona.

But oddsmakers remain wary of Scherzer, who hasn’t been his usual dominant self in the postseason, and the odds for Game 3 are a pick’em as a result.

Rangers vs Diamondbacks Odds for Game 3

Both the Rangers and DBacks are listed at -110 to win, while the run total is at 9.0 (-110 both ways). Texas took the opener on Thursday (6-5 in 11 innings) as a -160 home favorite. Arizona won Game 2 on Friday (9-1) as a +120 road underdog. The MLB public betting splits show the vast majority of moneyline handle (79%) on Arizona for Game 3.

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The World Series odds narrowed considerably after Arizona earned the split in Arlington. The Rangers were a -176 favorite in the opening odds and shortened to -295 after winning Game 1. But now Texas is only a slim -137 betting favorite heading into Game 3 with the DBacks at +116.

Games 3, 4, and 5 all take place in Arizona, meaning the Diamondbacks would win the best-of-seven series if they can sweep their home games.

Arizona vs Texas Game 3 Starting Pitchers

The 39-year-old Scherzer has made two starts in the postseason, returning from a month-long absence that held him out since Sep. 12. Both were ugly: he gave up five runs on five hits and a walk over 4.0 innings in a Game 3 loss to Houston in the ALCS, and then managed just 2.2 innings in Game 7, allowing four hits, two walks, and two runs while on a short leash.

Max Scherzer vs Brandon Pfaadt

*All statistics in table from 2023 regular season. 

Pfaadt’s trajectory has been the exact opposite. The rookie was hit hard during the majority of his first season in the bigs, but he started to put the pieces together late in the regular season and has parlayed that success into a (relatively) brilliant postseason run.

In four playoff starts, Pfaadt has a 2.70 ERA with 22 strikeouts in just 16.2 innings of work, a far cry from the 8.37 ERA he posted during his first month in the majors.

Pfaadt has faced Texas once before, coincidentally in his first career MLB start back on May 3rd. The Rangers mangled the rookie for seven runs on nine hits, including four homers over 4.2 innings. Josh Jung went deep off Pfaadt twice, while Jonah Heim and Leody Taveras also homered. Ironically, the only Ranger starter who didn’t get a hit that day was the record-setting Adolis Garcia, who has already set a new Major League high for RBI in a single postseason (22).

Scherzer has phenomenal career numbers against the Arizona lineup – .155/.216/.350 slashline over 103 total at-bats – but his lone start against the DBacks this season (which came in July before he was traded by the New York Mets) was mediocre by his lofty standards: four runs on five hits and two walks over 6.0 innings with nine strikeouts. Corbin Carroll, Christian Walker, and Lourdes Gurriel Jr all homered off of Scherzer in that July start.

Rangers vs DBacks Game 3 Player Props

*Perdomo’s home run odds from Caesars Sportsbook. All others in MLB props table from DraftKings.

The over/unders for Scherzer and Pfaadt are indicative of their recent performances. The rookie is listed with an identical strikeout total as the living legend (4.5) with both slightly favored to stay under. Scherzer’s outs-recorded total has been set at 14.5, one higher than Pfaadt at 13.5.

As will be the case for every game in the series, Adolis Garcia has the shortest odds to hit a home run (+255) and record an RBI (+115).

Rangers vs Diamondbacks Game 3 Picks

At this point, I am prepared to throw out the entire first half of Pfaadt’s 2023 regular-season stats. The rookie had a 9.82 ERA before the All-Star break and a 4.22 ERA after, per Baseball Savant. He has only gotten better in the postseason, recording double-digit swinging strikes in three of four starts. I don’t expect him to be perfect against a dangerous Texas lineup that’s already touched him up once before. But I do expect him to continue generating strikeouts.

As for Scherzer, his regular-season ERA was the highest it’s been since 2011 and age/wear-and-tear appear to be taking their toll. While his velocity is (mostly) still intact, location and movement are letting him down. Until he produces a vintage Scherzer performance, I am going to fade him.

If the starters produce a stalemate, the DBacks have the edge once the game is turned over to the bullpens (Paul Sewald’s Game 1 failure notwithstanding).

• Arizona Diamondbacks moneyline (-110)
• Pfaadt over 4.5 strikeouts (115)
• Garcia under 0.5 RBI (-155)
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The post Texas Rangers vs Arizona Diamondbacks Picks, Predictions, Odds & Player Props – Game 3 appeared first on Sports Betting Dime.

The Texas Rangers (99-75, 53-43 home) started strong and finished strong in the opener of the 2023 World Series last night, taking a 2-0 lead in the first inning and then forcing extra innings with a two-run bottom of the ninth. An Adolis Garcia home run in the 11th inning sent the crowd at Globe Life Field into hysterics and, on Saturday, Texas aims to take a 2-0 lead in the best-of-seven series with the Arizona Diamondbacks (93-82, 47-43 away).

First pitch for Game 2 is once again scheduled for 8:03 pm ET. The ARI/TEX Game 2 odds favor the Rangers again, but the gap in the odds is narrower than on Friday.

Diamondbacks vs Rangers Game 2 Odds

With Jordan Montgomery on the mound, Texas is a -142 home favorite in the MLB odds for Game 2 (after closing at roughly -160 on Friday night). Arizona, which will have number-two starter Merrill Kelly on the hill, comes back as a +120 underdog.

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The series-opener had an over/under of 8.0 and looked like it would be a push as Arizona took a 5-3 lead into the ninth inning. But a two-run homer from Corey Seager pushed the game over the total and into extra innings.

COREY SEAGER TIES THE GAME IN THE 9TH WITH ONE SWING OF THE BAT!!!

📺: FOX pic.twitter.com/RcUnRf801c

— FOX Sports: MLB (@MLBONFOX) October 28, 2023

Already the favorite prior to Game 1, the Rangers’ World Series odds improved from -176 to -295 on average. The Dbacks faded from +144 to +237.

The public is all over Texas in the MLB public betting splits for Game 2, putting a staggering 93% of moneyline handle on the Rangers (-142) as of 10:45 am ET on Saturday.

ARI vs TEX Game 2 Starting Pitchers

Both teams should feel confident in their starters heading into Game 2. Kelly has given the DBacks 17.0 innings of work while posting a 2.65 ERA and 1.00 WHIP with 19 strikeouts.

Montgomery has pitched 25.0 innings and has an even better ERA than his counterpart (2.16) but a significantly higher WHIP (1.28) with just 17 Ks.

Merrill Kelly vs Jordan Montgomery

*Statistics in table from 2023 regular season.

Kelly will be making his third road start of the playoffs. After holding the LA Dodgers scoreless over 6.1 innings in the NLDS, he went 10.2 total innings over two starts against Philadelphia in the NLCS, allowing five runs on six hits with 14 strikeouts. He was tagged for three solo homers in Game 2 of that series (a 10-0 loss) but bounced back with a one-run performance over 5.0 innings in a must-win Game 6 (a 5-1 victory).

Kelly has limited history against the Texas lineup, but the history that does exist bodes well for the 35-year-old. In 30 total at bats, Ranger hitters are slashing just .133/.161/.167 with one double and no home runs. His only previous start against Texas came back in 2019 when none of current starters were in the Ranger lineup.

Montgomery has only had one truly bad appearance in the 2023 postseason, a nine-hit, four-run outing over 4.0 innings against Baltimore in the ALDS.

On the whole, Montgomery’s history against the lineup he’ll be facing on Saturday isn’t encouraging. In 59 total at-bats, the Arizona lineup is slashing .305/.328/.424 against the 6’6 lefty. Gabriel Moreno is the only player to take him deep, though Ketel Marte is 3-for-6 with a triple.

The majority of those at-bats stem from two starts against the DBacks in the regular season. While one was an outright disaster (10 hits and seven runs over just 4.0 innings with two Ks), the other was an absolute game (four hits and a walk over 8.0 scoreless innings with six Ks).

DBacks vs Rangers Game 2 Player Props

*Odds from Caesars Sportsbook. All others from DraftKings.

Both pitchers are listed with an outs-record prop of 16.5 for in the Game 2 MLB player props. If yesterday’s series-opener hadn’t gone to extra innings, those would likely be an out lower. But with the bullpens getting taxed in the first of what could be a long series, both managers will be looking for more length from their Game 2 starters.

Fresh off setting a new record for RBIs in a postseason (22), Adolis Garcia is listed with the shortest odds to record another RBI (+105) and the shortest odds to go yard (+230), which he has now done in five straight games.

ADOLIS GARCÍA WALKS IT OFF TO TAKE GAME 1 OF THE WORLD SERIES 😱

(via @Rangers)pic.twitter.com/Dzt3LzTfLF

— Bleacher Report (@BleacherReport) October 28, 2023

Diamondbacks vs Rangers Predictions for Game 2

Kelly’s performance in the postseason coupled with his (brief) dominance over this Texas lineup leads to a strong lean towards the Diamondbacks in the first half of the game. Adding in Montgomery’s checkered history against the Arizona hitters, that lean becomes all the heavier.

Montgomery’s inability to get swings-and-misses is going to spell trouble at hitter-friendly Globe Life Field. His excellent start against Arizona in the regular season came on the road at the more pitcher-friendly Chase Field, while his disastrous start (10 hits in four innings) came at home, continuing the same home/road split trends from the regular season (3.61 ERA at home versus 2.73 ERA on the road).

DBacks vs Rangers Game 2 Picks:

• Diamondbacks first 5 innings moneyline (+114)
• Kelly over 4.5 strikeouts (-150)
• Montgomery under 16.5 outs (-130)

The post Arizona Diamondbacks vs Texas Rangers Odds, Player Props, Picks & Predictions (Game 2) appeared first on Sports Betting Dime.

The Texas Rangers (99-75, 51-43 home) continue their quest for the franchise’s first World Series title tonight as they host the Arizona Diamondbacks (93-81, 47-42 away) in Game 1 of the 2023 World Series.

First pitch is scheduled for 8:05 pm ET at Globe Life Field in Arlington, TX. Oddsmakers list the Rangers are sizable home favorites to take an early lead in the best-of-seven series.

Arizona Diamondbacks vs Texas Rangers Odds for Game 1

Texas is -160 home chalk in Friday’s MLB odds with the DBacks listed at +135. The over/under is at just 8.0 despite the last six Ranger games – and eight of the last nine – exceeding that number.

Odds as of Oct. 27 at Caesars Sportsbook. Check out the ESPN Bet promo code closer to Thanksgiving  for the latest on America’s next sportsbook. 

Texas reached the World Series in the MLB playoff bracket thanks to a thrilling seven-game comeback win over division-rival Houston in the American League Championship Series, dominating Games 6 and 7 (9-2 and 11-4) thanks to an offensive explosion.

The Diamondbacks also overcame a 3-2 deficit in the NLCS against Philadelphia, but it was more thanks to dominant pitching during a pair of 5-1 and 4-2 road victories at Citizens Bank Park.

The updated World Series odds list the Rangers as an even bigger favorite, currently -176 on average to win their first championship. Arizona comes into the series at +144 to win its second World Series and first since 2001.

Arizona vs Texas Game 1 Starting Pitchers

With both teams having multiple days off, they’re able to roll out their number-one starters for Game 1 of the World Series. For Texas, that means veteran Nathan Eovaldi taking the mound, opposite Arizona ace Zac Gallen.

Zac Gallen vs Nathan Eovaldi

*All statistics in table from 2023 regular season. 

While their regular-season numbers are very similar, Eovaldi has been much more effective in the playoffs. The 33-year-old righty is 4-0 with a 2.42 ERA and 0.96 WHIP including 28 strikeouts in just 26.0 innings and a phenomenal 7-to-1 K/BB ratio.

Gallen is 2-2 but sporting a 5.24 ERA and ugly 1.48 WHIP in 22.1 playoff innings to date, registering just 13 strikeouts in the process. He’s allowed a concerning six home runs (along with nine walks) in his four postseason starts, including five longballs in his last two starts during the NLCS (both losses).

Gallen started two of Arizona’s four games against Texas in the regular season; the first was a mediocre five-inning outing in which he allowed three runs on seven hits with six Ks during a 6-4 Ranger victory. The second was an outstanding three-hit, one-run performance with 11 strikeouts over just six innings in a 6-3 Dback win.

Cumulatively, the Ranger hitters have a .256/.218./.384 slashline against Gallen with just two home runs in 86 at-bats (one from Mitch Garver and one from Robbie Grossman).

Eovaldi didn’t start against Arizona in the regular season and, having spent his entire career in the AL, has minimal history against this Arizona lineups. Only three DBack hitters have faced him before: Gurriel is 7-for-18 (.389) with two homers and five RBI; Longoria is 3-for-12 (.250) with one RBI; and Tommy Pham is 2-for-6 (.333) with one RBI.

DBacks vs Rangers Player Props (Game 1)

The shortest odds to hit a home run in Friday’s MLB player props belong to none other than ALCS MVP Adolis Garcia at +255. Garcia was nearly unstoppable in the final four game against the Astros, mashing five home runs and a preposterous 13 RBI in 18 plate appearances.

Gallen and Eovaldi are both listed with an outs-recorded prop of 15.5, though Eovaldi is a -135 favorite to go over than number while Gallen is a +105 underdog. Both will need one out in the sixth inning to reach the over of 16 outs.

DBacks vs Rangers Game 1 Predictions

The difference between Eovaldi’s and Gallen’s postseason performances has been stark, and Gallen’s concerning numbers continue a downward trajectory from the latter parts of the regular season. His ERA in the first half of the season was a Cy Young-worthy 3.04, but that increased to 4.03 in the second half and 4.17 in September and October.

That being said, Gallen has a solid history against this Ranger lineup and +135 is an enticing price on a DBacks upset. The way Arizona’s bullpen has been pitching in the playoffs – a 5-0 cumulative record with a 2.94 ERA over 49.0 innings – Gallen won’t be allowed to flounder if he doesn’t have his A stuff on Friday night.

I’m also going to bank on Ketel Marte continuing his 16-game hit streak and pair him in a hits parlay with two players who have a solid history against Eovaldi: Gurriel and Pham.

ARI vs TEX Game 1 Picks:

• Diamondbacks moneyline (+135)
• Gallen under 15.5 outs (-135)
• Marte, Pham, and Gurriel all over 0.5 hits (+180)

The post DBacks vs Rangers Game 1 Predictions, Player-Prop Picks & Odds appeared first on Sports Betting Dime.

As far as preseason expectations are concerned, the 2023 World Series matchup is one of the most unlikely in recent memory. The Texas Rangers, who had a preseason win total of 82.5, will meet the Arizona Diamondbacks, whose MLB win total was just 74.5.

But both teams hit the over – by a wide margin – in the regular season and parlayed that success into deep playoff runs. Heading into the Fall Classic, the Rangers are sizable favorites to win their first World Series in franchise history.

Texas Rangers vs Arizona Diamondbacks Odds

Texas has been listed as a -160 favorite in the opening World Series odds with Arizona coming back as a +140 underdog to win their second championship and first since 2001, when Curt Schilling and Randy Johnson were named co-MVPs.

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Odds as of Oct. 24 at Caesars Sportsbook. 

The odds are slightly different across sportsbooks. The DraftKings Sportsbook app lists Texas at -170 and Arizona at +140. FanDuel Sportsbook is the shortest on the Rangers at -186 with the DBacks at +142.

Editor’s note: as of 11:27 pm ET, the odds at Caesars had already shifted to Texas -180/Arizona +155. 

Texas Rangers’ Path to the World Series

The Rangers bulldozed their way through the first two rounds of the MLB playoff bracket. In the AL Wild Card, they swept Tampa Bay 2-0 (both games on the road), outscoring the Rays 11-1 in the process. In the Division Series, they ran their win streak to five by seeping the Baltimore Orioles 3-0, outscoring the O’s 21-11 while playing two of the three in Baltimore.

The American League Championship Series with Houston was much more tumultuous. After winning the first two games in Houston – running their postseason win streak to seven – they dropped three in a row at home and faced two elimination games back at Minute Maid Park. But an offensive explosion in Games 6 and 7 (9-2 and 11-4) propelled Texas to its first AL Pennant since 2011.

After a modest start to the postseason, slugger Adolis Garcia absolutely exploded against the Astros. The ALCS MVP homered in the final four games of the series – mashing five in total – and drove in 15 runs over the seven-game series.

Veteran Nathan Eovaldi has been the ace of the staff in the playoffs, pitching a team high 26.0 innings with a team-best 0.96 WHIP and 28 strikeouts, along with a 4-0 record in his four starts. Jordan Montgomery has also been phenomenal on the mound, sporting a 2.16 ERA and 3-0 record over four starts (plus a relief appearance in Game 7 of the ALCS).

Including the postseason, the Rangers are 99-75 overall, including a 51-43 record at home and 48-41 mark on the road.

Arizona Diamondbacks’ Path to the World Series

The Diamondbacks’ road to the NL Pennant was eerily reminiscent of the Rangers’ path in the American League. The DBacks swept the Brewers 2-0 in Milwaukee during the NL Wild Card, outscoring the Brew Crew 11-5. Then Arizona stunned the Los Angeles Dodgers with a decisive three-game sweep that included an 18-6 edge in runs scored.

Arizona then dropped the first two games of the NLCS with the Philadelphia Phillies and saw its NL Pennant odds fade to +445. After two wins at home to even the series, they – like the Rangers – went down 3-2 in the best-of-seven with two road games looming.

Unlike Texas, which mashed its way to its final two wins, the Diamondbacks got sublime pitching performances to win Games 6 and 7. Arizona’s starters (Merrill Kelly and rookie Brandon Pfaadt) combined to give the DBacks 9.0 innings of three-run ball, while its (arguably league-best) bullpen combined for nine shutout innings.

At the plate, Ketel Marte has been the biggest contributor. Marte, who set a new NL record by hitting safely in the first 16 games of his MLB career, has a team-best .375 average and 1.025 OPS with two homers and seven RBI. Gabriel Moreno leads Arizona in RBI with eight while 23-year-old Alek Thomas has a team-leading four home runs (despite hitting just nine in the regular season).

The Diamondbacks are now 93-81 including the postseason with a 46-39 home record and 47-42 road record.

DBacks vs Rangers H2H History

The teams met four times in interleague play during the regular season with the Diamondbacks taking three of four, including both at home. Altogether, Arizona outscored Texas 26-19 over the four games. They scored at least four runs in each game and averaged 6.5.

The major x-factor heading into the 2023 World Series is Rangers pitcher Max Scherzer. The three-time Cy Young-winner, 2019 World Series-winner, and future first-ballot Hall-of-Famer returned from a six-week hiatus in the ALCS, but did not look like his usual self in two subpar starts. He managed just 6.2 innings total with a 9.45 ERA and 1.80 WHIP.

If he can find anything approaching the form he showed after Texas acquired him from the Mets at the deadline (3.20 ERA and 0.96 WHIP after the trade) he immediately becomes the most-dangerous pitcher in the series and gives manager Bruce Bochy an all-important third starter to go along with Eovaldi and Montgomery.

If Scherzer is still not himself, Arizona would arguably have a slight edge in starting pitching, with Zac Gallen, Merrill Kelly, and Brandon Pfaadt all pitching effectively.

2023 World Series Schedule

The first game of the 2023 World Series will take place on Friday, Oct. 27, meaning the Rangers will have had three full days off (Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday) while the Diamondbacks will only have had Wednesday and Thursday as rest days.

For a team that’s so heavily reliant on its bullpen, that’s not an ideal scenario for the DBacks.

If the series goes the full seven games, the season will culminate on on Saturday, November 4.

Monitor SBD’s MLB odds page for the moneyline, runline, and run total for each game of the 2023 World Series, and see the MLB public betting splits to see where the money is going for each game.

The post Texas Rangers vs Arizona Diamondbacks World Series Odds & Schedule – Rangers Open as -160 Betting Favorites appeared first on Sports Betting Dime.

A dominant 5-1 victory on Monday night by the Arizona Diamondbacks (92-81, 46-42 away) forced a Game 7 in the 2023 NLCS with the Philadelphia Phillies (97-76, 55-33 home) on Tuesday night at Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia. Both teams are turning to their number-three starters in a pitching rematch from Game 3: rookie Brandon Pfaadt starts for the Diamondbacks while Ranger Suarez gets the ball for the Phillies.

The MLB odds for Game 7 opened with Philadelphia as a -166 favorite and that line has, somewhat surprisingly, only shortened over the past 12 hours.

Arizona Diamondbacks vs Philadelphia Phillies Game 7 Odds

The Phillies are now -175 moneyline favorites to advance in the MLB playoff bracket while the DBacks come back as +145 underdogs. The game total of 8.5 remains unchanged from the ARI vs PHI Game 7 opening  odds.

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Odds as of Oct. 24 at DraftKings. Check out SBD’s DraftKings review to claim a sign-up bonus for the MLB playoffs.

Philadelphia, which had been the outright favorite in the World Series odds over the past few days, is now a +218 second-favorite to the Texas Rangers with Arizona sitting at +415 on average.

Despite both Game 7 starting pitchers shining in their previous appearance in the series, the MLB props for Game 7 list both hurlers with relatively low over/unders.

Diamondbacks vs Phillies Game 7 Player Props

Last Thursday, Pfaadt tossed 5.2 scoreless innings while striking out nine and allowing just two hits and no walks during Arizona’s much-needed 2-1 walk-off victory, which prevented the DBacks from falling in a 3-0 hole in the best-of-seven series. Suarez was just as effective on the other side, pitching 5.1 innings of shutout ball with seven Ks, three hits, and a walk.

Pfaadt’s first postseason start was a disaster – three runs on seven hits over just 2.2 innings at Milwaukee – but he’s now thrown 10 straight scoreless innings including a NLDS-clinching Game 3 against the LA Dodgers.

Suarez is in the midst of one of the best stretches of baseball in his four-plus-year career, especially as a starter. In three playoff starts, he’s surrendered just one run (earned or unearned) on seven hits over 14.0 innings while striking out 13 and walking just two batters. All the more impressive is that the first two of those starts came against Atlanta’s record-setting offense, which posted a league-high OPS of .845 in the regular season.

On the hitting side, Ketel Marte is the biggest storyline. Playing in his first postseason at the ripe age of 30, Marte has tied the National League record for consecutive playoff games with a hit to start a career (15), equalling Marquis Grissom’s record. Marte is currently -265 to record a hit in Game 7 and set a new record in the process.

The shortest home run odds belong to a trio of Phillies: Kyle Schwarber at +240, Trea Turner at +320, and Bryce Harper at +330. Texas slugger Adolis Garcia currently leads the playoffs with seven homers, while Harper, Schwarber, and Nick Castellanos are tied for the National League lead with five each.

DBacks vs Phillies Game 7 Predictions

Suarez’s over/under strikeout number is wildly low. Yes, he was held to just two Ks over five innings against the Braves on Oct. 12, but he literally recorded at least three strikeouts in every single regular-start he made this season (all 22 of them). He’s also been a better strikeout pitcher at home throughout his career (214 Ks in 229.2 innings at home versus 195 Ks in 224.1 innings on the road). Coming off a scoreless seven-strikeout performance last Thursday, Suarez should have no issues getting to three Ks tonight. (Notably, FanDuel’s line on Suarez recording at least three Ks is -220, considerably shorter than DraftKings’ -180 number.)

The only member of the DBacks who’s had sustained success against Suarez over the past few seasons is, you guessed it, Marte, who is 8-for-18 lifetime against the Phillies lefty with two doubles and zero strikeouts.

Though the confidence-level is lower, I also like Pfaadt to go over 4.5 Ks, which bettors can get at +124 at FanDuel (instead of +110 at DK). Up and down during the regular season, the rookie appears to have found his footing, containing two of the most-dangerous lineups in baseball in two high-pressure starts over the past ten days. Pfaadt also finished the regular season by recording at least six Ks in three straight starts. Only Trea Turner and Brandon Marsh managed a hit of Pfaadt in Game 3, and the former is going to join Marte in today’s hitter parlay.

ARI vs PHI Game 7 Picks:

• Suarez over 2.5 Ks (-180)
• Pfaadt over 4.5 Ks (+124 at FanDuel)
• Trea Turner & Ketel Marte both over 0.5 hits (-125 parlay at FanDuel)

The post Diamondbacks vs Phillies Player-Prop Picks & Predictions for Game 7 appeared first on Sports Betting Dime.

An outstanding start from Merrill Kelly plus some timely early hits sent the Arizona Diamondbacks to a 5-1 win on Monday, ending Philadelphia’s 11-game home win streak against NL opponents in the playoffs and forcing a decisive Game 7 in the 2023 NLCS in the process.

Oddsmakers give Philadelphia the slight edge heading into the series finale, setting the Phils as -162  home favorites.

Arizona has opened as a +136 underdog to win a second straight game at Citizens Bank Park. The home team had won the first four games in the series but after Philadelphia took Game 5 in Arizona, the DBacks made it two straight for the road team in Game 6.

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Odds as of Oct. 23 at FanDuel. 

The game total for Game 7 has opened at 8.5 with early money going on the under, which is already a -118 favorite.

Arizona had faded to a +445 longshot (on average) in the NL Pennant odds after falling behind 3-2. Now just a +136 underdog to win the National League, Arizona also saw its World Series odds improve from +1300 to +450 after their decisive Game 6 victory.

The Diamondbacks strike first thanks to Tommy Pham! 🐍

(via @MLB)pic.twitter.com/BnJ70zFEvO

— FOX Sports: MLB (@MLBONFOX) October 23, 2023

ARI vs PHI Probable Pitchers for Game 7

The pitching matchup in Game 7 is likely to be a repeat of Game 3: Brandon Pfaadt for the DBacks against Ranger Suarez for the Phillies. Neither was particularly effective in the regular season (see stats table, below) but both have been integral in getting their teams to this stage of the proceedings.

Brandon Pfaadt vs Ranger Suarez

Suarez and Pfaadt were both exceptional in Game 3, which ended in a 2-1 DBacks victory. Suarez struck out seven over 5.1 shutout innings while scattering just three hits and a walk.

Pfaadt was even better, striking out a career-high nine over 5.2 shutout innings, allowing just two hits and no walks.

Monitor the MLB lineups page for confirmation on the Game 7 starters tomorrow.

Expected ARI vs PHI Game 7 Line Movement

With the shine coming off Philly’s home-field advantage, expect this line to move towards the Diamondbacks in the next 24 hours. There is very little to choose between the starting pitchers – Suarez has more playoff experience, but the rookie Pfaadt has a much higher upside.

While the Phillies have a more dangerous lineup, top to bottom, the Diamondbacks own a decided advantage when it comes to the bullpens. With Arizona sitting at significant plus-money to win Game 7, expect sharp money to come in on the DBacks early and the gap to narrow in the MLB odds before first pitch.

The post Diamondbacks vs Phillies Game 7 Odds – Philadelphia Opens as -162 Favorite appeared first on Sports Betting Dime.

For the first time this postseason, a series will go the distance. Thanks to a dominant 9-2 Texas win last night, the Rangers (98-75, 47-41 away) and Houston Astros (96-76, 40-46 home) will play a decisive Game 7 in the ALCS on Monday night at Minute Maid Park in Houston at 8:03 pm ET.

Despite the road team winning all six games in the series to date, Houston is listed as a slight home favorite in Monday’s MLB odds.

Texas Rangers vs Houston Astros Game 7 Odds

The Astros are currently -125 home favorites on the DraftKings Sportsbook app. Texas is a +105 underdog to win its first AL Pennant since 2011. The total is at 9.0 and only the first game of the series (a 2-0 Texas win) has stayed under that number. Games 2 and 5 landed on nine exactly, while Games 3, 4, and 6 all reached at least 11 runs. Cumulatively, Texas and Houston are averaging 9.5 runs per game through the first six of the ALCS.

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Odds as of 11:28 am ET, Oct. 23, at DraftKings. 

The winner of Monday’s game will move onto the World Series in the 2023 MLB playoff bracket, where they will face either the Philadelphia Phillies or Arizona Diamondbacks. The Phillies, who own a 3-2 lead in the NLCS with the series shifting back to Philadelphia for Games 6 and (if necessary) 7, are listed as heavy -600 favorites in the odds to win the National League.

TEX vs HOU Game 7 Starting Pitchers

Despite an ugly start from the future Hall of Famer on Wednesday, the Rangers are rolling with Max Scherzer again in Monday’s Game 7. The Astros, meanwhile, list Cristian Javier as their starter in today’s MLB lineups, making this a pitching rematch from Game 3.  Scherzer was tagged for five runs on five hits and a walk in just 4.0 innings in Game 3 of the ALCS on Oct. 18, managing four strikeouts in the process. This Astros lineup was already batting .287 off Scherzer with a .487 slugging percentage before Game 3. Those numbers only increased to .289 and .503 after Wednesday’s start.

Max Scherzer vs Cristian Javier

Javier was better than Scherzer last Wednesday, especially in the early going. The 6’1 righty ultimately surrendered two runs on three hits and a walk over 5.1 innings with three strikeouts, but was nearly perfect through the first four innings before giving up a two-run home to Josh Jung in the fifth.

Javier was one of several Houston starters who had a subpar regular season; his 4.56 ERA is almost a full run higher than his career ERA of 3.57. But he’s always been rock-solid in the postseason, and his two starts in 2023 continued that trend. In 43.1 playoff innings, the Domincan has a 2.08 ERA and 0.92 WHIP.

Scherzer’s playoff stats are, overall, solid (3.80 ERA and 1.13 WHIP) but his lone postseason start for the Mets last year and his first for the Rangers this year both ended with double-digit ERAs. Scherzer’s start on Wednesday was his first since September 12 due to a back strain that kept him out the final three weeks of the regular season and first two playoff series.

Rangers vs Astros Game 7 Player Props

Both starting pitchers have ample playoff experience yet their over/unders for Game 7 are relatively pessimistic. Scherzer and Javier both have a strikeout over/under of just 4.5 in Monday’s MLB player props while Javier’s outs-recorded O/U is 12.5 and Scherzer’s is 13.5. Javier would need to get just one out in the fifth inning to reach the over; Scherzer would need two.

Adolis Garcia has shockingly short odds to hit a home run at just +190, despite a brutal history against Houston’s starter (more on this later). Postseason home run leader Yordan Alvarez once again has shortest odds to go deep for the Astros at +265. Alvarez homered in four of the first six playoff games this year – including two multi-home run games – but has been held inside the park in the past four.

Rangers vs Astros Predictions

Scherzer’s Game 3 performance was indeed awful but it was awful for somewhat encouraging reasons if you’re a Texas fan. The velocity was there on his fastball (95 MPH) and his curve was moving effectively. It was location that troubled him, and that’s more easily correctable than velocity issues.

Javier’s playoff pedigree speaks for itself at this point, but he also has a pretty solid history against this Texas lineup. Ranger hitters are batting just .231 off Javier in 143 total at-bats. Notably, Adolis Garcia is just 2-for-19 (.105 avg) with no extra-base hits while Marcus Semien is 4-for-22 (.182) with one double and Corey Seager is 5-for-23 (.217), though has tagged the Houston starter for two homers.

I expect both starters to get the better of their respective matchups in the early going and this to play out as a classic, low-scoring Game 7, at least through the first three innings.

TEX vs HOU Game 7 Picks:

• Scherzer over 13.5 outs (-110)
• NRFI (-110)
• First three innings under 1.5 runs (+195)
• Adolis Garcia under 0.5 home runs (-265)

The post Texas Rangers vs Houston Astros Odds, Picks & Player Props (Game 7) appeared first on Sports Betting Dime.

On Monday night, the Philadelphia Phillies (97-75, 55-32 home) can achieve something that’s only happened one other time in the 140-year history of the franchise: reach the World Series in back-to-back seasons. Up 3-2 on the Arizona Diamondbacks (91-81, 45-42 away) in the NLCS, Philadelphia is a -183 favorite to end the best-of-seven series in Game 6. First pitch is scheduled for 5:07 pm ET.

Diamondbacks vs Phillies Odds for Game 6

The DBacks come back as +150 underdogs in Monday’s MLB odds while the total is at eight runs even with the under slightly favored (-105o/-115u). After the home team won each of the first four games of the series, the Phillies got a gem from ace Zack Wheeler in Arizona on Saturday night en route to a 6-1 road victory.

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The World Series odds currently list the Phillies as +115 favorites with Houston and Texas heading to a Game 7 in the ALCS tonight. Arizona is a +1400 longshot to win its first Fall Classic since 2001, and has faded all the way to +390 in the NL Pennant odds.

Starting Pitchers for DBacks vs Phillies Game 6

Monday’s MLB lineups show a battle between number-two starters in Game 6 with Philly handing the ball to Aaron Nola and Arizona countering with Merrill Kelly. This is a repeat of the pitching matchup in Game 2, which went the Phillies’ way. While the final score (10-0) was ugly for Arizona backers, Kelly actually pitched relatively well in a difficult road environment, going 5.2 innings while allowing four runs on three hits and three walks while striking out six.

Merrill Kelly vs Aaron Nola

*Statistics in the table from 2023 regular season. 

Of course, Kelly’s outing paled in comparison to the lights-out performance from Nola, who pitched six shutout innings, scattering just three hits (and no walks) while fanning seven. Nola, who posted a concerning 4.91 ERA and 1.32 WHIP during Philly’s run to the 2022 NL Pennant, is now sporting a 0.96 ERA and 0.75 WHIP in the 2023 postseason.

Kelly has only made one other start in the playoffs, a 6.1-inning shutout performance in the decisive Game 3 of the NLDS against the LA Dodgers. This marks the first season the 35-year-old righty has pitched in the playoffs. After Game 2, the Phillies lineup is now slashing .256/.333/.487 against Arizona’s number-two starter. Both Trea Turner and Kyle Schwarber took Kelly yard in Game 2.

Nola’s numbers against the DBacks hitters heading into Game 2 were already pretty good (.255/.268/.382) and now look even better (.221/.231/.325).

ARI vs PHI Game 6 Player Props

The MLB player props for Game 6 show Kelly with significantly higher totals than he possessed in Game 2; his strikeout over/under has been upped from 4.5 to 5.5 (though the under is favored) while his outs-recorded O/U is up two full outs from 13.5 to 15.5 (though again the under is favored).

Nola has the same strikeout number (5.5) with an outs-recorded O/U of 16.5, which is one higher than last Tuesday.

Schwarber, who’s tied for the NL lead in home runs in the postseason with five, has the shortest odds to go deep on Monday at +330. None of the Arizona hitters are shorter than +475 (Christian Walker).

DBacks vs Phillies Predictions for Game 6

Ahead of Game 2, I made a lot of Kelly’s struggles on the road over his career. During the 2023 regular season, he had home/road ERA splits of 2.59 home/4.07 away, and his career ERA away from home is even higher (4.48). While Kelly’s performance last Tuesday was respectable, I don’t expect manager Torey Lovullo to give him much leash in this elimination game. The teams had yesterday off and the bullpens will be rested. Arizona has leaned heavily on its highly effective relievers all season and that won’t change in the biggest game of the year.

Nola, on the other hand, is much more likely to go deep into Game 6. The 30-year-old has always possessed electric stuff and, after an ugly regular season, appears to have turned a corner in the playoffs. After surrendering at least one home run in 23 of his 32 regular-season starts, he’s kept opponents in the park in all three playoff starts (18.2 total innings) while striking out just over one batter per inning (19 total).

DBacks vs Phillies Picks:

• Phillies moneyline first 5 innings (-174 at FanDuel)
• Kelly under 15.5 outs (-180 on the DraftKings Sportsbook app)

The post Arizona Diamondbacks vs Philadelphia Phillies Predictions, Odds & Player-Prop Picks for Game 6 appeared first on Sports Betting Dime.

The Texas Rangers have fallen from grace, and fallen hard. After rattling off seven straight wins to start the postseason – including Games 1 and 2 of the ALCS in Houston – the Rangers dropped three straight to their AL West rivals at home and now trail the best-of-seven 3-2 as the series shifts back to Houston for Games 6 and 7 (if necessary).

Needing two straight wins in hostile territory to advance to their first World Series since 2011, the good news for Ranger faithful is that the road team has won every game in the series to date. The bad news is that oddsmakers have set the Astros as slim favorites to win Game 6 (and massive favorites to win the AL Pennant).

Texas Rangers vs Houston Astros Game 6 Odds

The MLB odds for Sunday list Houston as a -126 home favorite, with Texas at +108 to extend the series to a Game 7. Houston’s odds to win the American League are now a hyper-short -475 on average, giving the Astros an 82.61% implied win probability.

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Odds as of Oct. 22 at FanDuel. Lock in a FanDuel Sportsbook deposit bonus to bet on Texas vs Houston Game 6 on Sunday night. 

On the strength of Jose Altuve’s three-run top-of-the-ninth home run, the Astros captured Game 5 by a 5-4 score. Altuve’s blast also sent the Astros to the top of the World Series odds, where they are currently +115 favorites to win their second straight Fall Classic.

Instant chills from this @Astros radio call of Jose Altuve’s go-ahead homer last night.

(MLB x @BudweiserUSA) pic.twitter.com/fLSyJAW2M7

— MLB (@MLB) October 21, 2023

If Houston wins on Sunday night, the MLB playoff bracket will see the Astros in the World Series for the third straight season.

Texas vs Houston Starting Pitchers for Game 6

The pitching matchup for Game 6 is a repeat of Game 2: postseason stud Nathan Eovaldi will toe the rubber for Texas, while the mercurial Framber Valdez gets the ball for Houston. Eovaldi got the better of things last Monday in a 5-4 Ranger victory, though he was far from perfect. The 33-year-old righty gave up three runs on five hits and a walk over 6.0 innings while striking out nine. But for Eovaldi against this Houston lineup, that qualifies as a gem. The Astro hitters had a .310/.377/.614 slashline against Eovaldi heading into Game 2, and that now sits at .296/.358/.598 heading into Game 6.

Nathan Eovaldi vs Framber Valdez

*All statistics in the table are from the 2023 regular season.

Valdez didn’t look like he was even going to make it through the first inning of Game 2 as Texas piled up four runs in the first frame. He eventually battled through 2.2 innings while allowing five runs (four earned) on seven hits and a walk. That was Valdez’s second ugly start of the postseason after getting roughed up for five runs on seven hits and three walks in 4.1 innings against the Twins on Oct. 8.

Thanks to those two performances, Valdez is sporting an outrageously bad 2.57 WHIP in the playoffs. That marks a drastic departure from last season’s World Series-winning campaign, when Valdez went 3-0 with a 1.44 ERA and 0.88 WHIP over 25.0 innings. But up-and-down is the name of the game with the 29-year-old Dominican, who posted a 1.88 ERA over 24 innings in the 2020 playoffs and a 7.78 ERA in 19.2 innings in the 2021 postseason.

TEX vs HOU Game 6 Player Props

The MLB player props for Game 6 list both pitchers at 4.5 Ks, though Valdez is favored to go over while Eovaldi is favored to stay under that number. The Texas starter is expected to last longer with a 15.5 outs-recorded O/U, which is one higher than Valdez (14.5).

The usual suspects have the shortest odds to go yard. Yordan Alvarez, who leads the majors with six homers in the postseason, has the best odds at +285, followed closely by Adolis Garcia at +290. Garcia finished the regular season tied for seventh in the majors with 39 homers.

Texas Rangers vs Houston Astros Prediction for Game 6

All the momentum is with the Astros here, as is the playoff experience. But the starting-pitcher matchup is the one area that Texas fans can be optimistic about. Eovaldi has a 2.29 ERA and 0.86 WHIP this postseason and, for his career, has posted a 2.87 ERA and 0.94 WHIP. This a savvy vet who won’t be overwhelmed by the moment. Monday’s Game 2 victory would have been a huge confidence-booster for Eovaldi, as well, largely shutting down a Houston lineup that had historically teed off on him during his 13-year MLB career.

Valdez, on the other hand, has been an unmitigated disaster in the 2023 playoffs. And as his past postseason stats illustrate, he’s had a hard time turning things around when he gets off to a rough start. Expect the ice-cold Dominican to stay on his current trajectory and spot the Rangers some early runs, while Eovaldi puts in another (at minimum) respectable performance in a must-win scenario.

TEX vs HOU Game 6 Picks:

• Rangers first 5 innings moneyline (+104)
• Marcus Semien over 0.5 RBI (+180)
• Eovaldi over 4.5 Ks (+105)

The post Rangers vs Astros Game 6 Odds, Props, Predictions & Expert Picks (Oct. 22) appeared first on Sports Betting Dime.

Philadelphia’s air of inevitability has dispersed over the past 48 hours. After two dominant home wins to open their best-of-seven NLCS with the Arizona Diamondbacks (91-80, 45-38 home), the Phillies (96-75, 42-43 away) dropped two straight on the road, allowing Arizona to even the series.

Now a best-of-three affair, Philadelphia turns to ace Zack Wheeler in Game 5 (8:07 pm ET/5:07 pm PT). With arguably the best pitcher remaining in the postseason on the hill, they enter Saturday night as slim road favorites.

Phillies vs Diamondbacks Odds

The Phillies are -130 road favorites in Saturday’s MLB odds with the DBacks coming back as +110 home underdogs to take their first lead of the series. The over/under is sitting at 8.0, which is the teams’ exact average through the first four games of the series (32 runs in four games).

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The NL championship odds have taken a swift and drastic turn over the past two days. Philadelphia was as short as -875 after taking a 2-0 lead in the NLCS. Now they are slight -170 favorites to advance to the World Series in the MLB playoff bracket for a second straight season.

Arizona’s World Series odds, which had faded to +1550 on Wednesday, rebounded to +475 after their back-to-back wins on Thursday and Friday.

Starting Pitchers for PHI vs ARI Game 5

Picking up where he left off in Philadelphia’s run to the 2022 NL Pennant, Wheeler has delivered in all three of his postseason starts to date this year. He’s went at least six innings in all three while allowing no more than two earned runs. In total, he’s pitched 19.0 innings while allowing just five earned runs on 11 hits and one walk while striking out 26. 

Arizona ace Gallen hasn’t been as reliable. In three starts of his own, he’s allowed nine runs on 18 hits and seven walks over 16.1 innings with just 12 strikeouts.

Zack Wheeler vs Zac Gallen

*All stats in table from regular season.

In Game 1 of the NLCS, the Phillies tagged Gallen for five runs on eight hits and two walks over just 5.0 innings.  Kyle Schwarber, Bryce Harper, and Nick Castellanos all went deep in the first two innings as Philly staked itself to a 5-0 lead before Arizona made a game of it late in a 5-3 win.

Wheeler, on the other hand, pitched 6.0 innings while allowing just two runs on three hits with eight Ks. After a leadoff single in the first, he retired 15 straight batters and held Arizona scoreless through five. Geraldo Perdomo hit a two-run homer in the sixth to break-up the shutout.

Arizona vs Philadelphia Player Props: Game 1

Saturday’s MLB player props list Wheeler with a strikeout prop of just 5.5, a number which he has far exceeded in all three postseason starts this year (8, 10, 8) though the over is heavily favored at -170 at DraftKings. (FanDuel lists Wheeler’s over at a shorter -156.)

Gallen also has an over/under Ks of 5.5, but his under is favored at -135.

The shortest home-run odds for Game 5 belong to Kyle Schwarber, one of three player to take Gallen yard in Game 1, at +255.  Ketel Marte and Christian Walker have the shortest odds among Arizona players at +450.

Phillies vs DBacks Game 5 Predictions

Wheeler’s performances over almost the entirety of the past two playoffs have been excellent, and his team is in dire need of another solid start from their ace to stop the bleeding. Having just faced Wheeler four days ago, the DBacks should be in a better rhythm against the 33-year-old righty, but I don’t expect the entire lineup to avoid the swings-and-misses that plagued them in Game 1.

Gallen doesn’t possess the same type of strikeout stuff as his Philly counterpart, and the Phillies’ lineup wasn’t fooled by much he was throwing on Monday. In addition to the three home runs, Gallen also gave up a concerning 12 fly balls to just six on the ground to go along with his four Ks.

While the Phillies’ bullpen is raising some real concerns, the first half of this game is apt to look a lot like the first half of the series opener.

PHI vs ARI Game 5 Picks:

• Phillies first 5 innings moneyline (-130)
• Wheeler over 5.5 Ks (-156 at FanDuel)

The post Phillies vs Diamondbacks Game 5 Odds, Player-Prop Picks & Predictions (Oct. 21) appeared first on Sports Betting Dime.

The Houston Astros aren’t going away without a fight. After dropping the first two games of the ALCS at home to the Texas Rangers, the two-time reigning AL champions got one back on Wednesday night with an 8-4 road win. Houston will have a chance to even the series tonight in Game 4 at Globe Life Field in Arlington. Oddsmakers favor the Rangers, but it’s nearly a pick’em.

Houston Astros vs Texas Rangers Game 4 Odds

The MLB odds for Thursday have Texas at -120 and Houston at +100, almost identical to the odds on Wednesday night. The over/under is sitting at a series-high of 9.5 with the under only slightly favored at -115. The MLB public betting splits show the public hammering the Rangers, who are getting 69% of moneyline handle as of 11 am ET on gameday. The public slightly favors the over with 53% of game-total handle on over 9.5 so far.

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The Astros, who had faded to +370 in the AL Pennant odds when they fell behind 2-0, saw their odds to win a third straight AL title improve to +180 after their victory on Wednesday night. The World Series odds, which briefly favored the Rangers, now list Texas as a +175 second-favorite behind the Phillies (+118), who own a 2-0 lead on Arizona in the NLCS. Texas is the only team left in the MLB playoff bracket that has yet to win the World Series.

Houston vs Texas Starting Pitchers for Game 4

The Astros will send Jose Urquidy to the mound in Game 4 opposite the Rangers’ Andrew Heaney. Urquidy is coming off an injury-shortened season which was, by all metrics, the worst of his three-plus-year career. The six-foot righty, who owns a 3.98 career ERA, posted a 5.29 ERA this year in just 63.0 innings.

Jose Urquidy vs Andrew Heaney

But like teammate Cristian Javier, Urquidy has showed signs of turning things around in the postseason. In his first start of the 2023 playoffs, Urquidy went a solid 5.2 innings against the Twins, giving up two runs on three hits and a walk with six Ks. That actually carried over a nine-inning scoreless streak from his final two regular-season appearances, which lowered his ERA from a horrendous 6.17 to 5.29.

Heaney, who was excellent in limited time with the Dodgers last year (3.10 ERA in 72.2 innings), failed to build off that in his first year with Texas. He wound up with a 4.15 ERA and a concerningly high 1.38 WHIP on the season and was relegated to the bullpen late in the year. His play dramatically improved once moved to the pen, though, which propelled him back into the rotation in the postseason. Heaney gave manager Bruce Bochy a solid 3.2 innings of work in his first start of the playoffs against Baltimore, allowing just one run on two hits and a walk, though he recorded just one K.

Both pitchers have a concerning history against the hitters they’ll be facing on Thursday. Houston’s lineup is slashing .263/.325/.464 in 179 total at-bats with nine home runs (four from Jose Abreu and two from Jose Altuve), nine doubles, and 21 RBI off of Heaney. Urquidy’s numbers against the Texas hitters are better in some departments, but much worse in others. In 78 total at-bats, Urquidy has limited the Rangers’ lineup to a .218 average. But they are slugging .538 off the righty with seven homers, four doubles, and 10 RBI in those 78 at-bats. Marcus Semien has been particularly problematic for Urquidy, going 8-for-21 with three homers and four RBI.

Houston vs Texas Game 4 Player Props

Urquidy and Heaney both have an outs-recorded prop of just 11.5 for Game 4 in Thursday’s MLB player props, meaning they only need to complete the fourth inning to go over.

Once again, the shortest odds to hit a home run belong to Texas slugger Adolis Garcia at +260. Garcia has two home runs and seven RBI in the playoffs but has yet to homer against Houston. Yordan Alvarez, who was robbed of his seventh home run of the postseason last night by Leody Taveras, is the shortest Astro at +310.

Houston Astros vs Texas Rangers Predictions (Game 4)

The over/under of 9.5 suggests neither starter is going to be great. But there is reason to have at least a modicum of confidence in both, especially Urquidy, who finished the regular season strong and started the playoffs similarly. For his career, Urquidy has a solid 3.64 ERA with 42 strikeouts in exactly 42.0 postseason innings.

It’s also extremely hard to overlook the Astros’ performance away from home this season. Houston went 51-30 on the road in the regular season before winning both games in Minnesota in the ALDS and taking the first in Arlington yesterday. Expect the exponentially-greater playoff experience on the Houston side to win out on Thursday and level this series.

Houston Astros vs Texas Rangers Game 4 Picks:

• First three innings under 2.5 runs (+114)
• Marcus Semien over 0.5 RBI (+155)
• Astros moneyline (+100)

The post Houston Astros vs Texas Rangers Player-Prop Picks, Odds & Predictions (ALCS Game 4) appeared first on Sports Betting Dime.

This afternoon in Arizona, the Diamondbacks (89-80, 43-38 home) look to avoid falling in a 3-0 deficit to the Philadelphia Phillies (96-73, 42-41 away) in the best-of-seven National League Championship Series. First pitch for Game 3 is scheduled for 5:07 pm ET/2:07 pm PT at Chase Field in Phoenix.

Despite home-field advantage on Thursday, the Diamondbacks head into Game 3 as plus-money underdogs for the third straight time in the series, and eighth straight in the playoffs as a whole (i.e. each one of their games).

Phillies vs Diamondbacks Odds

Thursday’s MLB odds list the DBacks as +112 home underdogs to carve into Philadelphia’s lead, which is actually the shortest pre-game odds in the postseason so far. Looking back through the MLB public betting splits reveals that Arizona has been listed at +114 or longer in each of its 2023 playoff games to date (two versus the Brewers in the Wild Card, three versus the Dodgers in the NLDS, and Games 1 and 2 of the NLCS versus the Phillies).

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The DBacks’ World Series odds have taken a serious hit the past two games. Already the longest shot on the board of the four remaining teams, Arizona faded from +466 to +1550 after falling in a 2-0 hole to the Phillies due to a 10-0 blowout in Game 2. Their Pennant odds went from +153 prior to Game 1 to +595 ahead of Game 3. The Phillies are now -875 on average to win their second straight NL Pennant.

PHI vs ARI Game 3 Starting Pitchers

Both teams turn to their number-three starters in Thursday’s MLB lineups, which is a more encouraging sight for the road team. The Phillies send 28-year-old lefty Ranger Suarez to the mound for his third start of the postseason, while the DBacks give rookie Brandon Pfaadt his second start. While Suarez was roughed up some in the regular season, the playoffs have been a different story so far.

Ranger Suarez vs Brandon Pfaadt

Suarez started Games 1 and 4 of the NLDS with the top-seeded Braves and, cumulatively, pitched 8.2 innings while allowing just one run on four hits and a walk while striking out six.

Pfaadt’s first career playoff start was a disaster, allowing three runs on seven hits and a walk in just 2.2 innings during Game 1 of the Wild Card at Milwaukee. His second start, however, was spectacular in comparison. In Arizona’s series-clinching win over the Dodgers, the rookie went 4.1 scoreless innings while allowing just two hits and striking out two.

Pfaadt has never faced a single hitter in Philadelphia’s lineup. Suarez has a less-than-stellar history against the Arizona hitters, who are slashing .270/.365/.432 off the righty in 74 total at-bats with seven doubles, a triple, and a home run courtesy Evan Longoria. He made two starts against Arizona in the regular season and they were starkly different. In the first, back in May, Suarez gave up five runs on five hits and a walk over 5.0 innings at home. In the second, just three weeks later, he went 7.0 scoreless innings, scattering four hits and two walks while striking out seven on the road.

Phillies vs DBacks Player Props for Game 3

Thursday’s MLB player props portend a short outing from Pfaadt, whose outs-recorded is listed at just 11.5 compared to Suarez at 14.5. Despite the discrepancy in their outs-recorded numbers, Pfaadt is actually listed with the higher strikeout prop at DraftKings, sitting at 3.5 compared to Suarez at 2.5, though Suarez is a bigger favorite to go over (-195) than Pfaadt (-165). Pfaadt actually had more strikeouts in his short, unproductive outing against the Brewers (four) than his scoreless start against the Dodgers (two). Going back to the regular season, he recorded at least four strikeouts in 11 straight starts to end the year.

Philadelphia Phillies vs Arizona Diamondbacks Predictions for Game 3

After striking out 23 times through the first two games, the DBacks now get to face a starter with just a 20% strikeout percentage. But Suarez went over that number in both of his regular-season starts against this team, including racking up seven Ks in his only road start against the DBacks. He also went over 3.5 in his first start against the Braves in the NLDS and, including 2022, has shown a penchant for upping his game in October. Last postseason, he  had a 7.98 K/9 rate in the playoffs compared to a 7.47 mark in the regular season.

As mentioned, Pfaadt finished the regular season by recording at least four strikeouts in 11 straight starts. During the regular season, Philadelphia was a bottom-ten team in terms of strikeouts per game, averaging 9.12 Ks per game (only seven teams struck out more) and no one in their lineup has ever had the luxury of facing Pfaadt before. Expect their rhythm to be off early and Arizona to ultimately pull one back.

Phillies vs DBacks Game 3 Picks:

• Diamondbacks moneyline (+110 at FanDuel)
• Pfaadt over 3.5 Ks (-164 at FanDuel)
• Suarez over 3.5 Ks (+128 at FanDuel)

The post Phillies vs Diamondbacks Predictions, Odds & Player Props for Game 3 appeared first on Sports Betting Dime.

Still in search of the franchise’s first World Series title, the Texas Rangers (97-72, 51-31 home) can inch closer to their ultimate goal on Wednesday night when they host the Houston Astros (93-75, 53-30 away) in Game 3 of the ALCS at Globe Life Field (8:03 pm ET).

Already up 2-0 in the best-of-seven series after two narrow wins in Houston, the Rangers can push Houston to the brink of elimination tonight. With one of the most-dominant pitchers in baseball history returning to their lineup on Wednesday, the Rangers are positioned as favorites for the first time in this series.

Astros vs Rangers Game 3 Odds

Wednesday’s MLB odds list Texas as -125 home favorite with Max Scherzer making his first start since September 12. Houston comes back as a +105 underdog and will have Cristian Javier on the mound. Texas took a 2-0 win in Game 1 behind a stellar performance from starter Jordan Montgomery and held on for a 5-4 win in Game 2 after a four-run first inning.

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Odds as of Oct. 18 on the DraftKings Sportsbook app. Lock in a DraftKings sign-up promo code to wager on HOU vs TEX Game 3. 

Scherzer, who is returning from a back strain, isn’t expected to pitch too deep into Game 3 (as the player props further down the page show). But his Rangers are nonetheless well positioned. Texas has become a massive -473 favorite in the AL Pennant odds. They are also sitting at +124 in the World Series odds, just behind Philadelphia, which also owns a 2-0 on Arizona.

HOU vs TEX Game 3 Starting Pitchers

Three-time Cy Young-winner and 2019 World Series-winner Max Scherzer returns from a month-long hiatus to take the ball for the Rangers in Game 3. The Astros will counter with Cristian Javier in Wednesday’s MLB lineups. Javier shook off an ugly regular season with a five-inning shutout against Minnesota in a pivotal Game 3 of the ALDS after the teams split Games 1 and 2 in Houston.

Cristian Javier vs Max Scherzer

Scherzer made two starts against the Astros in the regular season; one was a gem and the other ranks among the worst of his career. Back in June, while still with the Mets, Scherzer limited the Astros to one run on four hits with eight strikeouts over eight innings of work, needing just 91 pitchers to retire 24 Houston hitters. Back in early September, shortly before he went on the IL, Scherzer was tagged for seven runs on six hits (including three homers) and two walks in just three innings. That start alone raised his ERA from 3.55 to 3.91 for the season.

That start actually continued a concerning trend for Scherzer against this Houston lineup. In 157 total at-bats, Astros hitters are hitting .287 against Scherzer with a .487 slugging percentage. Particularly concerning is that Yordan Alvarez is 4-for-7 off Scherzer with a home run and three walks. Michael Brantley, who has the longest history against Scherzer, is 20-for-54 (.370 avg) with three homers, eight doubles, 11 RBI and, somehow, only two strikeouts.

Javier only made one start against the Rangers in 2023, and it was an unmitigated disaster. The 26-year-old righty surrendered eight runs on nine hits over 4.1 innings, though Houston still emerged with a 12-11 victory. That was a drastic departure from his previous history against Texas. In 2022, Javier made a whopping five starts against the Rangers, lasting at least five innings in each one without surrendering more than three runs. Cumulatively over the five starts, he pitched 27.1 innings while striking out 35 and allowing just nine earned runs (a 2.96 ERA).

Altogether, Texas hitters are slashing .244/.331/.455 against Javier over his four-year career.

Astros vs Rangers Game 3 Player Props

With Scherzer’s stamina in serious question, his props for tonight look starkly different than a regular Mad Max start. His over/under strikeout number is at just 4.5 and his outs-recorded prop is 12.5. In order to hit the over, he would need just one out in the fifth inning. Javier has identical over/unders at DraftKings, but he’s an underdog to hit five Ks and 13 outs, whereas Scherzer is a modest favorite to go over in both categories.

The MLB player props show a couple players with strikingly short home run odds. The Rangers’ Adolis Garcia has the shortest odds at just +220, while teammate Corey Seager is close behind at +260. Houston slugger Yordan Alvarez, who leads the postseason with six homers (in just six games), is shortest among Astros players at +260.

Houston Astros vs Texas Rangers Predictions for Game 3

On the surface, Scherzer has a checkered history against the Astros hitters, but that’s not to say every start against Houston has been subpar. Indeed, many of the uglier numbers against this lineup come from much earlier in his career when he was with Detroit (and Brantley was with division-rival Cleveland). Scherzer has actually only made five starts against the Astros since 2014 and his brutal outing in September 2023 was the only one in which he gave up more than two earned runs or lasted fewer than five full innings.

While winning the 2019 World Series with the Washington Nationals, Scherzer made two starts against the Astros (including Game 7), pitching 5.0 innings on both occasions while giving up two runs in each game and striking out a total of 10 batters. Washington won both games (5-4 and 6-2).

Javier has always been a pitcher who thrives at home and struggles on the road. His career 3.57 ERA is comprised of a 2.87 ERA at home and a bloated 4.26 ERA on the road. That trend continued this season with a  3.71 home era and 5.17 road ERA. Javier did, as mentioned, pitch a five-inning shutout at Minnesota in Game 3 of the ALDS. But he had the benefit of some very pitcher-friendly light/shadows around home plate in the early going and walked a concerning five batters. I’m not remotely convinced the issues that plagued him during the regular season are cured, and one solid road start a week ago doesn’t undo years of struggles away from home. Expect a solid night of production from the Texas lineup against the Astros starter.

Astros vs Rangers Game 3 Picks:

• Rangers moneyline (-125)
• Scherzer over 12.5 outs (-125)
• Javier over 2.5 earned runs (-120)

The post Houston Astros vs Texas Rangers Odds, Player Props & Picks for Game 3 (Oct. 18) appeared first on Sports Betting Dime.